編按：最近，孟加拉國經過數周的針對政府公職配額制度的抗議暴力事件後，總理哈西娜（Sheikh Hasina）辭職並逃亡印度，由諾貝爾獎得主尤努斯教授（Prof. Muhammad Yunus）領導的臨時政府成立，反映了該國內部的重大變化。孟加拉在南亞具有重要的戰略意義，本文由香港城市大學公共及國際事務學系李芝蘭教授和孟加拉國拉傑沙希大學（University of Rajshahi）公共行政學系潘迪教授（Prof. Pranab Kumar Panday）合著，旨在探討孟加拉在強鄰中國和印度之間，以及與西方國家──尤其是美國──之間的外交關係中，謹慎而微妙的地緣政治平衡。
Introduction
Initiated by the students’ movement of July and August 2024, Bangladesh’s current political change has thrown off the nation’s political climate and placed it in a pivotal role in its international relations. Significant changes inside the country were reflected through the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the formation of an interim government headed by Nobel Laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus. With its significant strategic relevance in South Asia, Bangladesh must reciprocate its foreign policy in view of the quickly changing global political environment.
Bangladesh’s Fragile Geopolitical Equilibrium
Bangladesh has long negotiated a careful balance between its powerful neighbours, China and India, and a complex diplomatic relationship with Western countries, most notably the United States. Under Sheikh Hasina’s government, improved ties with India and China have contained India’s political and strategic impact whilst enabling the country to profit from China’s economic largesse. The relationship with the United States grew strained, however, over the critiques of political and human rights in the country.
The student-led revolution has brought about a government change, redefining the internal political environment. The difficult task of handling these complicated international ties in a global setting that is progressively polarized and divided confronts the newly formed interim administration right away.
The Dilemma India-China Faces
How the Hasina government handled China and India especially revealed its diplomatic balancing act. India has offered Bangladesh staunch political and security support. Under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has been a prominent partner in the country’s infrastructural projects. Bangladesh effectively attained substantial economic progress using a dual engagement approach.
The collapse of the Hasina government has disrupted the equilibrium between these two potent forces. India, which has a long-standing relationship with Sheikh Hasina, might change its approach to the new interim government. China, which under Hasina has intensely committed to infrastructural projects, might want to keep its economic sway uninterrupted. Under the direction of Nobel Laureate Professor Yunus, who commands respect worldwide but lacks political experience, the interim government should exercise caution and maintain stable diplomatic relations.
US Relations: A Reboot Opportunity
The diplomatic links of the new interim government to the United States will likely present a challenge. Bangladesh’s relationship with the United States had soured during Sheikh Hasina’s term, and Washington’s comments on the 2024 election were blunt. The United States had also imposed visa restrictions on Bangladeshi politicians and senior executives of law enforcement organizations.
The political transition in Bangladesh means that the interim government has an opportunity to recalibrate the relationship, especially given the US’s present emphasis on strengthening allies in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s dominance. Washington will probably support the initiatives of the interim administration on democratic reforms, anti-corruption policies, and human rights. Should the interim government show a genuine will to restore democratic values and combat corruption, it may find a ready friend in the United States, eager to get involved with Dhaka again.
The Role of International Institutions
The participation of international organizations such as the United Nations (UN) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will shape Bangladesh’s future. Specifically in ensuring justice for the killings carried out during the student movement, the UN has been playing a significant role in investigating the aftermath of the government change. The interim government will most likely ask international organizations for help in the future to stabilize the economy, rebuild trust in democratic institutions, and heal the social fractures that have developed during this stormy period.
Helping Bangladesh control the economic effects of the political unrest would depend much on international financial institutions. The interim government must guarantee that Bangladesh can maintain its economic trajectory by securing favourable conditions from lenders such as the World Bank and the IMF, particularly considering the difficulties of rising inflation, a declining value of the currency, and a swelling debt load. The financial establishments must back the temporary administration headed by Professor Muhammad Yunus.
Geopolitical Implications
Historically, South Asia has undergone great political unrest; the events in Bangladesh could inspire similar political upheavals in neighbouring nations. Bangladesh’s temporary government’s performance in managing the change might act as a model or a warning for other nations facing democratic issues.
In particular, India will be keenly interested in Bangladesh’s development. Being the biggest democracy in the area, India has a significant stake in seeing the stable development of Bangladesh. While protecting its strategic interests, New Delhi should assist the interim government. Still, Sheikh Hasina’s refuge in India might make it more challenging to maintain a harmonic bilateral relationship between the two countries.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
Bangladesh is at a critical turning point; hence, the choices made by the interim government in the next several months will significantly affect the nation’s internal political environment and its international image. India and China’s fragile equilibrium will significantly shape Bangladesh’s future course, the possibility of a fresh start with the United States, and the impact of world organizations.
The interim government has a unique opportunity to reshape Bangladesh’s international profile. The skill of negotiating the geopolitical complexity it faces to maintain internal stability while actively supporting the world community will determine its success. Bangladesh’s ability to emerge into a stable, democratic, and economically prosperous country in a region historically scarred by wars will mark a new benchmark for South Asia and the world community.
