近來，兩岸互動出現新趨勢。其特色是有一些大陸遊客前往馬祖，也有少數台灣人前往大陸和香港參加論壇，但明顯以馬祖和金門作為更密集互動的重要平台。
8月9日，7名來自福建的大陸遊客前往馬祖，這是新冠疫情結束後，第一批大陸遊客訪問馬祖。台灣交通部門表示，歡迎更多大陸遊客來馬祖旅遊。原本，台灣交通部門預計2024年赴台遊客1200萬人次中，將有200萬人次來自大陸。問題的癥結在於民進黨政府尚未接受九二共識，也沒有開放台灣接納更多大陸遊客。
由於與大陸關係冷淡，台灣遭受重創的另一個領域是高等教育領域，許多公立和私立大學都缺乏大陸學生。一些大學受到了財務影響，服務業也是如此。
儘管政治仍然是更密切互動的最終障礙，但雙方似乎都傾向於實用主義。
兩岸交流 低調重啟
民進黨的賴清德在5月20日的就職演說中明確提到了希望重啟兩岸觀光旅遊和學生交流，儘管他的演說指兩岸「互不隸屬」，在政治上非常具有挑釁性。
在兩岸「小三通」問題上低調處理，可見務實態度。6月29日，福州市派遣22人考察團赴馬祖「踩線」。8月9日，這次考察似乎為利用馬祖作為小規模大陸遊客的試點奠定了基礎。
低調的實用主義可見於馬祖傳統上被視為福建省連江縣的一部分。因此，允許部分福建人參拜媽祖，屬於福建省內的省內參訪。
此外，馬祖和金門歷來是主張統一的國民黨在台灣立法委員和縣市長選舉中的政治據點。因此，允許部分大陸人士前往金門、馬祖旅遊，在政治上是可以接受、可行、合理的。
8月17日，在青島召開的兩岸關係會議上，國務院台灣事務辦公室原副主任、現任海峽兩岸關係協會副會長孫亞夫公開表示，大陸和台灣最近一兩年的互動比以往任何時候都多。他補充說，只要兩岸人民更加努力，兩岸關係就能打破目前的僵局，取得進展。孫也表示，台獨勢力仍是兩岸發展和關係的主要障礙。
早在2023年8月，孫亞夫就表示，北京應在爭取和平統一的同時，做好與台獨勢力軍事鬥爭的準備。兩個月後，8月17日，孫亞夫在四川舉行的兩岸關係會議上表示，大陸和台灣應該透過文化和經濟互動努力實現融合。四川會議吸引了130人參加，包括台灣銘傳大學楊開煌教授，國民黨黨員、台灣海峽兩岸發展研究基金會理事長丁守中等。
2023年8月17日，為期兩天的兩岸關係會議在山東召開，來自大陸和台灣的140名學者參加。台灣統一聯盟黨主席戚嘉林出席（《中國日報》，2023年8月17日）。他批評民進黨在台灣社會製造對大陸的仇恨。
近期8月9日內地遊客小規模赴馬祖，掩蓋了7月1日至8月19日，兩岸約9966名旅客搭乘渡輪往來福建和馬祖的事實。連接福建與馬祖的渡輪班次增加至322班次，較2023年同期增加94%。
2024年8月20日，全球華僑華人促進中國和平統一大會在香港舉行，大陸當局統戰部部長石泰峰、國台辦副主任仇開明等發表講話。會議通過宣言，表示兩岸同胞血脈相連，任何力量都不能、也不會將他們分開，堅決反對台獨，加強兩岸融合。
台灣新黨主席吳成典也出席了會議，並表示「統一是我們的責任，和平是我們的智慧。」他補充說，大陸的經濟發展可以促進統一，中國式的現代化可以贏得台灣人民的支持。吳來港之前曾訪問過西安，他表示佛教可以為大陸和台灣走向和平統一提供正確方向。
藍營積極交流 保持對話開放
從近期兩岸互動來看，有幾個特點。
首先，8月就兩名大陸漁民在2月發生與台灣海巡船遭遇事故中喪生的船難事件達成和解，顯示雙方已經將金門不僅作為談判平台，而且作為民間外交的平台，從而導致最終和解的突破。
其次，一些台灣人，特別是藍營的政治人物，似乎積極訪問大陸並參加大陸和香港的研討會。他們為保持相互對話的開放性和互動勢頭發揮着至關重要的作用。
第三是大陸遊客小規模前往馬祖，部分台灣民眾也可定期搭乘渡輪前往福建。旅遊業有進一步擴張的跡象。
第四，金馬已成為相互接觸與互動的重要焦點。如果要逐步進行一體化進程，金門和馬祖都注定成為進一步互動、對話、討論和談判的地緣戰略平台。看來可以先進行社會經濟、教育和文化的互動，或許將最具爭議性的政治議題留到最後階段進行相互討論。
總而言之，儘管兩岸政治存在分歧，但近來兩岸關係呈現出一種新趨勢、新模式，互動比以往任何時候都更加頻繁和深入。如果正如已故中國領導人鄧小平所強調的那樣，實用主義戰勝了意識形態鬥爭，那麼兩岸關係仍然保持謹慎樂觀。
A New Trend of Cross-Strait interactions
Recently, a new trend of cross-strait Interactions has emerged. It is characterized by a very small batch of mainland tourists visiting Mazu, a tiny minority of Taiwan people going to attend forums in the mainland and Hong Kong, and the obvious use of Mazu and Kinmen as the essential platforms of more intensive Interactions.
On August 9, seven mainland tourists from Fujian went to visit Mazu – the first batch of mainland tourists visiting Mazu after the end of Covid-19. The Taiwan transport department said that it welcomes more mainland tourists to visit Mazu. Originally, the Taiwan transport authorities anticipated that 2 million of the 12 million tourists visiting Taiwan in 2024 would come from the mainland. The crux of the problem was that the Taiwan government under the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has not yet accepted the 1992 consensus and it has not opened up Taiwan to embrace more mainland tourists.
Another hard-hit area in Taiwan due to its frosty relationship with the mainland has been the higher education sector, where many public and private universities are lacking mainland students. Some universities have been affected financially, so as the tertiary services sector.
Although politics remain the ultimate obstacle to closer Interactions, both sides have appeared to lean towards pragmatism.
William Lai of the DPP in his speech on May 20 did mention his hope for mutual tourism and student exchanges, even though his speech was politically very provocative in saying that neither side is “subservient” to the other.
Pragmatism can be seen in a low-key way in dealing with cross-strait ferries. On June 29, Fuzhou sent a 22-member tourist delegation to Mazu on an inspection visit. The delegation appeared to lay the groundwork of utilizing Mazu as a pilot point for a small scale of mainland tourists on August 9.
Mazu has been traditionally regarded as part of the Lianjiang county in Fujian province. As such, allowing some Fujianese to visit Mazu is a kind of intra-provincial visit within the province of Fujian.
Furthermore, Mazu and Kinmen have been traditionally the political strongholds of the pro-reunification Kuomintang (KMT) in Taiwan’s legislative and county elections. As such, allowing some mainlanders to visit Kinmen and Mazu is politically acceptable, feasible and justifiable.
On August 17, during a conference on Cross-Strait Relations in Qingdao, Sun Yafu, the former deputy director of the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office and the current vice chair of the Cross-Strait Relations Association, said openly that both the mainland and Taiwan have more interactions in the recent one year or two years than ever before. He added that if the people from both sides work harder, cross-strait relations can break the current deadlock and make progress. Sun also remarked that “the Taiwan independence force” remains the main obstacle to cross-strait development and relations.
As early as August 2023, Sun said that Beijing should strive for peaceful reunification while preparing for any military struggle with the Taiwan separatists. Two months later, during a conference on cross-strait relations in Sichuan on August 17, Sun remarked that both mainland and Taiwan should strive for integration through cultural and economic interactions. The Sichuan conference attracted 130 participants, including Professor Yang Kai-huang from Ming Chuan University in Taiwan and also Ting Shou-chung, a KMT member and board chair of Taiwan’s Cross-Strait Development Study Foundation.
On August 17, 2023, a two-day conference on cross-strait relations was held in Shandong, where 140 scholars from the mainland and Taiwan participated. Chi Chia-lin, who headed the Reunification Alliance Party in Taiwan, attended (China Daily, August 17, 2023). He criticized the DPP for creating hatred towards the mainland within the Taiwan society.
The recent small scale visit of mainland tourists to Mazu on August 9 hid the fact that from July 1 to August 19, about 9,966 passengers from both sides travelled by ferries between Fujian and Mazu. The ferries that connect Fujian with Mazu increased their frequency of visits to 322 trips, an increase of 94 percent compared to the same period of 2023. These passengers included Taiwan’s tourists and visitors who study and do business in Fujian.
On August 20, 2024, when the annual conference of The World Overseas Chinese Association in Promotion of Peaceful Reunification of China was held in Hong Kong, mainland authorities delivered their speeches, including United Front Department minister Shi Taifeng and State Council Taiwan Affairs Office deputy director Qiu Kaiming. The conference approved a Declaration saying that comrades across the two straits share the same blood, that no force can and will separate them, that they resolutely oppose “independence,” and that they will enhance interactions and integration.
Taiwan’s New Party chair Wu Cherng-dean also attended the conference, saying that “unification is our responsibility and peace requires our wisdom.” He added that the mainland’s economic development can facilitate reunification and that the Chinese-style modernization can win the hearts and minds of the Taiwan people. Before Wu came to Hong Kong, he had visited Xian where he said that Buddhism can provide the right direction for both the mainland and Taiwan to move toward peaceful unification.
Judging from the recent cross-strait Interactions, there are several features.
First, the settlement in August over the two mainland fishermen who died in February during a boat accident and encounter with the Taiwan coastguard vessel showed that both sides have already used Kinmen as a platform for not only negotiations but also people-to-people “diplomacy,” thereby leading to a breakthrough in the final settlement.
Second, some Taiwan people, notably those in the politically blue camp, appear to be active in making visits to the mainland and participating in seminars in the mainland and Hong Kong. They are playing a crucial role in keeping the mutual dialogue open and maintaining the interactive momentum.
Third, a small scale of mainland visitors went to Mazu, where some Taiwan people can also visit Fujian regularly by ferries. There are signs of further expansion in tourism.
Fourth, Kinmen and Mazu have already become the crucial focal points of mutual contacts and interactions. If a stage-by-stage process of integration is to be conducted, both Kinmen and Mazu are destined to be a geopolitically strategic platform for any further interaction, dialogue, discussion and negotiations. It seems that socio-economic, educational and cultural interactions can be made first, perhaps leaving the most controversially political issues to the final stage of mutual discussion.
In conclusion, cross-strait relations have recently been characterized by a new trend and new mode of more frequent and intensive Interactions than ever before, despite the political differences between the two sides. If pragmatism prevails over ideological struggles, as the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping did emphasize, then cross-strait relations remain cautiously optimistic.
原刊於澳門新聞通訊社（MNA）網站，本社獲作者授權轉載。（原文按此）
