特首東盟拓商機.親歷個案柬埔寨

就讀高中,參加帶路先鋒公開賽,贏取冠軍,獲獎外訪,但被安排去了一個落後的東南亞國家。然而,它卻燃亮了我的世界,這竟是一次畢生難忘的旅程──柬埔寨絲路之旅。

(按:本文由陳鳳翔博士輔導下撰寫。)

就讀高中,參加帶路先鋒公開賽,贏取冠軍,獲獎外訪,但被安排去了一個落後的東南亞國家。然而,它卻燃亮了我的世界,這竟是一次畢生難忘的旅程──柬埔寨絲路之旅。

參加活動  眼界豁然大開

在首都金邊,看到由中資正在趕工的全球九大環保德崇機場、新華集團推動的中國文化中心、金邊皇宮與其背後千年鼎盛王朝、最受歡迎的普通話教授地孔子學院、傷痛回憶及警惕珍惜今天的吐斯廉屠殺博物館等。

更為幸運的是,作為學生的我們可以拜訪官方機構,與教育部討論創科教育,參觀商界的經濟特區。

製衣工業 易地開花盛放

不發達的國家,卻看到來自香港的毛衫大王,而且業務規模在東南亞還是數一數二。

陳潔盈女士的金鏗集團約30年前(1996)到來,正當大家仍擔憂其風險時,她們則掌握了柬國的嶄新機遇:工資平、成本低、投資不設限制、外匯進出自由、勞動力供應豐富(國民平均年齡20多歲),可曰是一個充滿活力的經濟體。

可作比喻,40多年前的深圳,同樣一窮二白、制度不完善。機遇隨着改革開放而至,而成功者只要克服困難,便可取得驕人成績。

地緣政治 時移世易機遇

今天西方貿易戰愈趨激烈,美國對華施加各種關稅,阻撓內地製造業發展。解決辦法,就是產業轉移,以規避關稅。

從資料發現,柬埔寨的出口,輸往首位是美國,頭號產品是成衣;另一方的進口,來貨首名是中國,產品包括成衣配件。亦即是貿易戰強化了他們的製造業,吸引企業到來設廠輸歐美。

這個結果很合理,發展中國家較落後、年青及有活力,有利勞動力密集的製造業。作為鄰國,屬於一帶一路或粵港澳大灣區的輻射地,是一同合作的良伴。

灣區輻射 市場蓄勢崛起

評估走回頭路的風險,導遊和商家介紹了社會氣氛,因受過近代內戰的悲慘歷史,才會珍惜得來不易的和平。

參觀過毛澤東大道和習近平大道,了解過官員配合一帶一路的五角戰略,充分感受到兩國的全面戰略夥伴關係,作為華商能擁有較強的投資優勢。

在金邊皇宮遇上近百小學生,他們開心地以普通話說出的中文數字,侊如孔子學院學生渴望研習中文,中國的影響力對創造柬埔寨優良的營商環境起到重要作用。

總括多天親歷行程,地緣政治不代表中國輸、美國贏,美國消費者也須承擔變化後較高價格;同行的莊太量教授指出,勞動力密集(「老三樣」的服裝)以外的高增值「新三樣」(光伏產品、鋰電池、新能源汽車)才是中國產業升華的方向。正如香港特區特首也前往東盟拓商機,青年熟悉這市場,定能握更多機遇,享更闊前景。

Hong Kong firm dresses the world from base in Cambodia

Aa a high school student, I participated in a Belt and Road Pioneer competition and won the championship, which resulting in my making an overseas trip. In Phnom Penh, the capital of Cambodia, we visited many interesting places, but this article will focus on a trip to “the king of sweaters” – a garment company from Hong Kong that has become internationally successful, particularly with pullovers.

Ms. Catherine Chan’s Goldfame Group arrived 28 years ago. In 1996, business people were still worried about the risks in the country, but Ms Chan and her team seized new opportunities. Cambodia had flat wages, low costs, no restrictions on investment, free entry and exit of foreign exchange, and affordable labour—the average national age was about 20. The company grew to became globally successful.

As a comparison, think of Shenzhen—which 40 years ago was a humble agricultural town, and has now grown into a huge and lively city today. Opportunities come with reform and opening, and successful people can achieve impressive results if they overcome difficulties.

TRADE WAR

Today, the trade war has become increasingly fierce. The United States has imposed various tariffs on China, hindering the development of mainland manufacturing. In some cases, a solution is to relocate industries to avoid tariffs.

From the data, we found that Cambodia’s top export destination is the United States, and its number one product is ready-made garments; for its imports, the number one location is China, and its products include ready-made garment accessories.

In other words, the trade war strengthened the manufacturing industry and attracted companies to set up factories and export to Europe and the United States.

This result works well for both sides. Developing countries lack elements of developed ones, but are young and dynamic, and this is conducive to their hosting labour-intensive manufacturing industries. As neighbouring countries and radiating areas of the Belt and Road Initiative or the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Hong Kong is a good partner for cooperation with its neighbors.

GBA MARKET TO RISE

Cambodia had recovered from a war. It can be said that only those who have experienced the tragic history of modern civil war will fully cherish the hard-won peace.

I visited Mao Zedong Boulevard and Xi Jinping Boulevard, learned about officials’ Pentagonal Strategy to cooperate with the Belt and Road Initiative, and fully felt the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the two countries. Chinese business people may have strong investment advantages.

On another part of my trip, I met nearly a hundred primary school students at the Royal Palace in Phnom Penh. They happily recited Chinese numbers in Mandarin, just like the students at the Confucius Institute who were eager to learn Chinese. China’s influence plays an important role in creating an excellent business environment in Cambodia.

Summarizing a key fact I learned on this many-day personal trip, I can say that geopolitics does not mean that China loses, and the United States wins. American consumers will also have to bear higher prices after the changes. Professor Terence Chong pointed out that besides the labour-intensive industry (“Old Three products”), the New Three industries that add value (electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells) are an excellent direction for China’s industrial growth.

Just as Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu has gone to ASEAN to explore business opportunities, young people familiar with this market will surely be able to seize more opportunities and enjoy broader prospects.

原刊於點新聞、Friday Everyday,本社獲陳鳳翔提供轉載。