中日韓領導人峰會的經濟實用主義

這次中日韓領導人會議,經濟實用主義佔主導地位。儘管中國、日本和南韓的政治立場和利益不同,但這次峰會是富有成果的、有益和有建設性的,因為三國都關注深化經濟合作和人文交流的必要性。

中國國務院總理李強、南韓總統尹錫悅和日本首相岸田文雄於5月26日在首爾舉行的最近一次三邊峰會,證明了東北亞經濟務實主義的持續存在,這一現象表明,儘管存在涉及北韓和美國強權政治的地緣政治和軍事緊張局勢,但展望未來仍可謹慎樂觀。

上次三國領導人峰會2019年12月在四川成都舉行,其後新冠疫情在全世界肆虐。5月26日在首爾舉行的三邊峰會達成了一些重要共識,其一為加快推進中日韓自貿協定談判明確了方向;其二是中日韓之間持續就貿易、經濟議題和人員交流進行三邊對話。

李強希望,中韓尊重彼此核心利益和重大關切,堅定做彼此信賴的友鄰、相互成就的夥伴。李強也表示,中韓雙方要攜手開拓新領域、拓寬合作面,維護兩國及全球產業鏈供應鏈穩定暢通。加速推進中韓自貿協定第二階段談判,深入建設中韓(長春)國際合作示範區,加強高端製造、新能源、人工智慧、生物醫藥等領域合作。

韓方重申一個中國原則

尹錫悅則呼籲,中方能在北韓擁核及俄羅斯與北韓軍事合作方面發揮作用,這一點顯然比李強的任何回應更具地緣政治姿態。

尹錫悅也表示,韓中兩國不僅要加強雙邊關係,也要為國際社會的和平與繁榮保持密切合作。他重申,韓方堅持一個中國原則,願深化兩國在雙邊貿易和人文交流領域的共同利益。

這位韓國總統又說,韓國和中國應該就一系列問題啟動兩國副外長之間的會談,促進青年和文化交流。

李在鎔感謝中方疫情期間幫忙

李強會見了三星電子董事長李在鎔,這是兩人19年來的首次會面。李強於2005年參觀三星電子的工廠,當時他是浙江省委書記習近平的秘書長。李在鎔在5月26日的會談中,非常感謝中方在疫情時期幫助三星和三星夥伴公司克服危機,中國在疫情期間允許三星電子包機接載員工前往中國,在西安封控期間協助半導體工廠持續開工,在上海封控期間幫助三星SDI的電池核心合作公司早期復工。

李強告訴李在鎔,三星與中國的合作是中韓經濟合作的體現。李強希望三星在高階生產、數碼經濟、人工智慧等領域與中國大陸企業合作,鼓勵三星深化並拓寬在華投資。

李強籲日方負責任處置核污染水

另一方面,中日雙方同意加強各層級溝通。李強向日方表示,中方希望日方妥善處理歷史、台灣等問題,與中方一道相向而行,建構契合新時代要求的建設性、穩定的中日關係。關於福島第一核電廠廢水污染問題,李強表示核污染水處置關乎全球海洋生態環境和民眾健康,呼籲日方以負責任方式處置核污染水。

事實上,岸田和中國國家主席習近平去年11月就已同意,透過協商對話解決處理核污染水爭端。

岸田在會見李強時則呼籲中方,取消自2023年8月起對日本水產品的進口禁令。

岸田表示,建設性、穩定的關係不僅有利於日中雙方,也有利於世界。希望雙方就經貿問題、人文交流等議題進行高層對話。

尹錫悅和岸田文雄討論了南韓和日本將如何在2025年深化合作。今年將是兩國建交60周年。兩國都將北韓視為軍事威脅,試圖抵制和制衡平壤的核武研究和發展。韓日兩國都有共同利益,希望見證朝鮮半島無核化進程。他們對俄羅斯和中國對北韓的支持表示共同的擔憂。日本仍然對北韓處理據稱被綁架日本人的方式感到不滿。尹錫悅和岸田文雄都同意與美國合作的必要性。

北韓指「綁架問題」沒啥好談

5月初,岸田重申,他希望在包括美國在內的國際社會的支持下,能夠與北韓舉行峰會。然而,平壤拒絕了這項提議,並表示北韓「對於日本堅持的『綁架問題』,沒有什麼可談的」。2002年,據報朝鮮承認在1970年代和1980年代派出特工綁架了13名日本人。時任日本首相小泉純一郎於2002年訪問平壤並會見了領袖金正日,隨後北韓釋放並遣返了5名日本人。但在東京認為平壤在被綁架受害者問題上不夠坦誠後,兩國再次陷入外交僵局。

分析來說,中日韓峰會有利於三國之間的和平關係,特別是在這3個國家正在採取經濟務實主義意識形態,同時拋開不同的政治利益和議程的情況下。

儘管如此,政治分歧仍然是這3個國家之間建立更密切關係的障礙。雖然日本和南韓必然是親美的,但中國面對美國的霸權仍表現出針鋒相對的態度。於是,朝鮮問題就出現了;南韓和日本都將平壤視為軍事威脅,因此必須依靠美國來制衡北韓。近日有報道稱,大批俄羅斯工程師前往平壤,或與幫助北韓發射軍事偵察衞星有關。2023年11月,北韓向太空發射了第一顆軍事偵察衞星,並計劃在2024年再發射3顆。

中日韓自由貿易協定談判或許是5月26日三邊峰會最重要的突破。三國在聯合宣言中強調,確保透明、順暢和有效實施《區域全面經濟夥伴協定》作為中日韓自由貿易協定的基礎的重要性。三方將繼續就加快中日韓自貿協定談判進行討論,以期達成一個自由、公平、全面、高品質、互惠且具有自身價值的自貿協定。

中國商務部表示,中日韓三國產業鏈關聯度高,經濟互補性強,中日韓自貿協定一旦達成,將推動三國進一步相互擴大市場開放,降低貿易壁壘,增進貿易投資,優化三國營銷環境。在中國一直強調世界經濟和貿易自由化、美國變得比以往任何時候都更加自我保護的時候,北京、東京和首爾之間的任何自由貿易協定都可能對美國在東北亞的經濟影響力構成挑戰。

中日韓簽自貿協定 有利北韓自由化

最重要的是,中日韓之間的任何自由貿易協定,都可能有利於北韓經濟和社會的自由化。在這方面,中國作為中間人的角色仍然至關重要,特別是南韓希望中國在說服和影響北韓走向無核化和經濟自由化方向方面,發揮更積極和自信的作用。

總而言之,這次中日韓領導人會議,經濟實用主義佔主導地位。儘管中國、日本和南韓的政治立場和利益不同,但這次峰會是富有成果的、有益和有建設性的,因為三國都關注深化經濟合作和人文交流的必要性──這是東北亞和平與繁榮的前提。最重要的是,三國深化和加速自由貿易協定討論的意願是一項重大舉措,是在地緣政治緊張局勢下堅持經濟務實主義的方向,以及東北亞地區政治經濟自由化的精明舉措,或許有望讓北韓緩慢地開放,推動平壤走上進一步經濟自由化的道路,即使不一定是無核化。

Economic Pragmatism of the Sino-Korean-Japanese Summit

The most recent trilateral summit held between the Chinese Premier Li Qiang, the South Korean President Yoon Yeok-seol and the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Seoul on May 26 was a testimony to the persistence of economic pragmatism in Northeast Asia – a phenomenon pointing to a cautiously optimistic future despite its geopolitical and military tensions involving the power politics of North Korea and the US.

The summit in Seoul was held for the first time after December 2019, which was then followed by the onslaught of Covid-19 and its variants in the entire world. The trilateral summit on May 26 reached some important consensus, one of which is the acceleration of the second stage of the negotiation over Sino-Korean free grade agreement and the other is the continuation of the trilateral dialogue between the three East Asian nations on trade, economic issues and human interactions.

Li Qiang hoped China and South Korea would respect the core interests and concerns of both countries, while being good neighbours at the same time. Moreover, Li added that the logistical supply chains of the two nations can be mutually beneficial and integrated, that economic and trade cooperation can be deepened and broadened, that the Sino-Korean Changchun International Cooperation Demonstration Zone will have its construction process accelerated, and that mutual cooperation in high-end production, new energy, Artificial Intelligence and biochemical and pharmaceutical areas can have stronger collaboration than ever.

President Yoon appealed to Li Qiang for China’s active function in dealing with the nuclear weapons issue on the Korean Peninsula and the North Korean-Russian military cooperation – a point that was clearly far more geopolitical in gesture than having any response from Li Qiang.

Yoon also said that South Korea and China should maintain close cooperation and promote their national development, thereby contributing to world peace and prosperity. South Korea, to Yoon, maintains the one-China principle and is willing to deepen the mutual interests of both countries in the areas of bilateral trade and human interactions.

The South Korean president added that both South Korea and China should initiate talks between their deputy foreign ministers on a whole range of issues, promoting youth and cultural exchanges.

Li Qiang met Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong – their first meeting in 19 years as Li visited Samsung in 2005 when he was an official under party-secretary Xi Jinping in Zhejiang province. During the May 26th meeting, Lee expressed his gratitude to China’s assistance to Samsung during the COVID-19 period as Beijing at that time allowed charter flights for Samsung employees to travel to China and prevented production termination at Samsung’s semiconductor plant in Xian during the lockdown in the mainland.

Li Qiang told Lee that Samsung’s cooperation with China is an indication of Sino-Korean economic collaboration. Li hoped Samsung would collaborate with the mainland Chinese enterprises in high-end production, digital economy, and Artificial Intelligence, apart from his encouragement of Samsung to deepen and broaden its investment in China.

On the other hand, China and Japan agree to enhance their communications at all levels. Li Qiang told the Japanese side that China expects Japan to deal with the matter of history and the question of Taiwan appropriately so that Sino-Japanese relations can and will be stabilised constructively. On the question of the polluted waters resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Li Qiang appealed to the Japanese side that it should fulfil its responsibilities and obligations, because the release of the wastewater bears on the health of the humanity.

In fact, Kishida and the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, had already agreed in November last year to resolve the treated water dispute through consultative dialogue.

In his meeting with Li Qiang, Kishida appealed to the Chinese side to lift an import ban that China imposed on the Japanese marine products starting from August 2023.

Kishida added that a constructive and stable relationship is beneficial to not only both Japan and China but also the world. He expressed his hope that both sides should conduct high-level dialogue over economic and trade issues as well as cultural and human interactions.

Yoon and Kishida discussed how South Korea and Japan can and will deepen cooperation in 2025, which will mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Both nations perceive North Korea as a military threat, trying to resist and check against Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons study and development. South Korea and Japan have a common interest in witnessing the process of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. They expressed their common concern about the support of Russia, and China, for North Korea. Japan remains unhappy with how North Korea handles the allegedly kidnapped Japanese. Both Yoon and Kishida agreed with the necessity of cooperating with the US.

In early May, Kishida reiterated his hope that a summit with North Korea could and would be held, with the support of the international community, including the US. Yet, Pyongyang turned down the proposal, saying that North Korea “has nothing to solve as regards the ‘abduction issue’ insisted by Japan.” In 2002, North Korea reportedly admitted that it had sent agents to abduct 13 Japanese in the 1970s and 1980s. The Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi paid a visit to Pyongyang in 2002 and met Kim Jong-il at that time, followed by the release and return of five Japanese from North Korea. But diplomatic deadlock returned to the two countries after Tokyo criticised Pyongyang for not coming clean about the abducted victims.

Analytically speaking, the trilateral summit is beneficial to the peaceful relations between China, South Korea and Japan, particularly as the three nations are adopting the ideology of economic pragmatism while putting aside their different political interests and agendas.

Still, political differences remain an obstacle to a closer relationship between the three nations. While Japan and South Korea are necessarily pro-US, China remains defiant in the face of its perceived US hegemony. As such, the question of North Korea comes in; Pyongyang is perceived as a military threat by both South Korea and Japan, which then have to rely on the US to check and balance North Korea. Recently, it has been reported that a large batch of Russian engineers went to Pyongyang to assist North Korea in dealing with the launch of the detection satellites. In November 2023, North Korea launched the first military detection satellite into space, and it is planning to launch three more in the year 2024.

The China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement negotiations are perhaps the most important breakthrough in the trilateral summit on May 26. In their Joint Declaration, the three countries emphasised the importance of ensuring transparent, smooth, and effective implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership as a foundation element for the China-Japan-South Korea free trade agreement. They are also committed to continuing discussions on how negotiations can be speeded up so that the free trade agreement would be free, fair, high-level, reciprocal, and uniquely valuable.

According to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, the industrial chains of China, Japan and South Korea are highly interconnected, and as such, a free trade agreement between the three countries will expand market openness, reduce trade barriers, enhance trade and investment, and optimise the business environment. At a time when China has been emphasising the liberalisation of the economic and trade atmosphere in the world, and at a time when the US has become fa more self-protective than ever before, any free trade agreement between Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul would likely become a challenge to the US economic influence in Northeast Asia.

Most importantly, any free trade agreement between China, Japan and South Korea will likely be beneficial to the liberalization of the economy and society in North Korea. In this connection, China’s role as a middleman will remain crucial, especially as South Korea expects China to play a more active and assertive role in convincing and influencing North Korea toward the directions of denuclearization and economic liberalisation.

In conclusion, economic pragmatism prevails in the trilateral economic summit between China, Japan, and South Korea. Although China has different political positions and interests compared with Japan and South Korea, the summit was productive, healthy, and constructive, as they all focused on the need to deepen economic cooperation and human interactions – a precondition for peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia. Most importantly, their intention of deepening and accelerating the discussion of a free trade agreement is a significant move – a direction of persistent economic pragmatism amid geopolitical tensions and a shrewd move in the liberalisation of Northeast Asian regional political economy that will perhaps hopefully and slowly open up North Korea and propel Pyongyang to the path of further economic liberalisation, if not necessarily denuclearization.

原刊於澳門新聞通訊社(MNA)網站,本社獲作者授權轉載。

新書推介

書名:The New Politics of Beijing–HongKong Relations Ideological Conflicts and Factionalism(《京港關係的新政治格局:意識形態衝突與派系之爭》)
作者:盧兆興
定價:港幣700元
出版:香港大學出版社
內容:盧兆興教授在新書中探討了2012年至今北京和香港意識形態的不同變化,以及以派系政治鬥爭形式呈現的意識形態衝突。本書探討了自2020年6月下旬頒布《香港國安法》以來,北京對港政策中所體現的家長式威權主義和保守民族主義意識形態的轉變。雖然自2020年6月下旬以來,在香港實施的《國家安全法》穩定了該城市的政治局勢,但北京對香港的政策目前以保護國家安全和維持經濟實用主義的原則為指導,無疑對北京與台北的關係產生了影響。

盧兆興