南北韓領袖發表一系列言論及韓美一系列軍事演習和北韓砲擊行動後，朝鮮半島軍事局勢突然惡化。距離2018年9月的朝韓峰會，雙方承諾致力實現朝鮮半島無核化5年後，朝鮮半島雙方的軍事威懾導致了真正的「秀肌肉」，使兩韓關係陷入前所未有的軍事危機。
當前的危機可以追溯到南北韓政治領袖的一系列言論，以及隨後的軍事演習和行動──這是一個不祥的徵兆，可能會在2024年引發軍事意外或衝突。
朝鮮半島軍事局勢突然惡化
2024年1月1日，南韓總統尹錫悅表示，南韓和美國將完成升級的韓美延伸威懾機制構建工作，從「源頭上封鎖」北韓彈道導彈威脅。韓美聯盟將實現依靠力量構築的「真正永久和平」。2023年7月，美韓「核磋商小組」首次召開會議，美國承諾增加朝鮮半島周邊包括戰略核潛艦在內的部署。該小組於12月16日舉行了第二次會議，會後美國發表聲明稱，如果北韓對南韓發動任何攻擊，華盛頓將作出迅速的、果斷的反應。
2023年，隨着平壤加強軍事裝備及金正恩訪問俄羅斯並對俄羅斯先進軍事武器表示讚賞後，南北韓之間的軍事關係變得充滿挑戰。同時，南北韓雙方均加強了對邊境地區的軍事監視。
2023年11月，北韓向軌道發射了第一枚偵察衛星，以提供南韓軍事實力、軍事目標和部署地點的實時資訊。南韓表示，北韓發射這枚衛星，違反了聯合國安理會禁止平壤利用彈道飛彈技術的決議。2023年12月，北韓官媒朝中社報道，北韓將在2024年再發射3枚人造衛星，以加強軍事偵察能力。此外，北韓還將充實其核武庫和軍用無人機。太空軍事競賽的目的是讓北韓比南韓更具優勢──此舉解釋了為什麼美韓會作出加強軍事合作，包括必要時在南韓部署核武的回應。
2023年一整年，北韓不斷推進軍事發展，試射了遠程洲際彈道導彈，例如固體燃料的「火星18」遠程導彈，並部署了更多軍事武器，包括一艘核攻擊潛艦和攻擊用無人機。
金正恩2023年12月27日在勞動黨第八次中央委員會會議上發表重要講話，指朝鮮和韓國都已到了成為敵對國家的階段，朝鮮擁有「核戰威懾力」。如果美韓與朝鮮進行軍事對抗，將毫不猶豫地採取行動──金正恩這一重要講話表明，如果韓國和美國繼續進行軍事演習，金正恩傾向於從軍事「威懾」轉向進一步展示實力的具體行動。
金正恩表示，美韓雙方都將北韓視為「主要敵人」，兩國都試圖令平壤「政權崩潰」，並試圖「吸收統一」北方。針對韓美同盟，金正恩說，平壤將深化發展與「反帝國主義獨立自主國家」之間的戰略合作關係，這意味着俄羅斯在烏克蘭戰爭中獲得了北韓的武器。
金正恩的講話中，令人震驚的地方在於，他提到「人民軍和軍需工業、核武和民防部門需要承擔戰鬥任務，以進一步加快戰爭準備」。
金正恩的講話很重要，因為他指出朝鮮半島武裝對抗的危險是一種「隨時成為現實」的現象。他的評論是針對美韓不斷升級的保護行動而發表的──這種加強合作的嘗試讓金正恩提到北韓有必要「厲兵秣馬」來保護自己。
金正恩的講話內容是北韓方面於2024年1月1日公布的，即2023年12月29日開始，為期一周的美韓聯合軍演期間。1月5日北韓便作出了炮擊的反應。
應對平壤軍備 美韓增加軍演強度
金正恩的言辭升級，與之對應的，是南韓總統尹錫悅12月28日敦促前線部隊「立即就地堅決粉碎敵人的挑釁意圖」。
儘管北韓在新冠疫情結束後仍面臨糧食短缺，但其「先軍政治」的政策沒有改變；北韓2023年最大化和加速了軍事化的努力。
儘管金正恩及其智囊和軍方將領認為，朝鮮軍事化是對美韓同盟有效的「鎮懾」，但華盛頓和首爾方面卻決心以「威懾」應對北韓的威脅。因此，對軍事威脅的相互認知促使雙方互秀軍事「肌肉」。
2023年12月29日，韓美兩軍在北韓邊境附近開始了為期一周的射擊演習。南韓方面表示，聯合軍演旨在測試和加強模擬敵方侵略的軍事戰備狀態。此次聯合軍演涉及韓軍戰車、高射炮、美軍飛機、裝甲車等110台大型作戰武器。南韓海軍也參與其中，在東、西、南海域進行反潛演習，並出動驅逐艦、護衛艦和輕型巡洋艦。
美韓雙方也增加了2023年聯合軍演的範圍和強度，以應對平壤方面不斷升級的軍事準備。換句話說，北韓和美韓之間每一次升級軍事準備，都會引發對方的本能反應，進一步周期性地加劇軍事緊張局勢。
2024年1月5日上午，北韓向南韓西部邊界附近海域，特別是南韓島嶼白翎島和延坪島發射了200發炮彈。白翎島有5000名居民：延坪島則有2000名居民。對此，南韓政府向島上居民下達躲避令。
2010年，北韓火炮射擊延坪島，造成兩名海軍陸戰隊員和兩名平民死亡，另外15名士兵和兩名平民受傷。當時朝方將責任歸咎於韓方，稱這次攻擊是針對南韓在延坪島附近海域進行炮兵演習的回應。
2024年1月5日上午，炮彈落在北方邊界線以北，這是聯合國在朝鮮戰爭1953年停戰時制定的有爭議邊界。朝鮮的炮火及其射程與金正恩所言相符，意味着北韓和南韓都已接近成為交戰國的邊緣。
韓國參謀長聯席會議表示，北韓的炮擊是一種挑釁行為，「威脅和平且加劇了朝鮮半島的緊張局勢」。
作為回應，南韓軍方1月5日（周五）下午舉行了海上射擊演習，顯示了其報復性的下意識反應。
然而，雙方軍事上以牙還牙的反應，恐會導致今年內引發軍事事故甚至衝突的巨大危險。
下表顯示南韓和北韓之間軍事關係的矩陣。在雙方都堅持立場的情況下，軍事危機已經出現，有可能引發事故或衝突。如果雙方都讓步，局勢就會恢復現狀和穩定；如果任何一方做出讓步，另一方就會被視為主導且獲勝的軍事參與者──這不是導致現狀的好兆頭。
朝鮮半島推一國兩制？
朝中社12月31日報道了金正恩12月27日的講話，其中有趣的想法，含蓄地提及平壤和首爾未來對話的可能性。
金正恩在講話中首次提到南北韓將無法重新統一，雙方不再是同一個國家。不過他表示，南韓堅持以「吸收統一」和「體制制度」定為基本國策。他的重要暗示是，除非北韓和南韓採用兩種制度──兩種不同的政治、社會、經濟和軍事制度──否則永遠不能實現國家統一。金正恩也表示，北韓堅持基於「一個民族、一個國家、兩種制度」的統一。如果是這樣，他的意思是，北韓和南韓將有機會在「一個朝鮮民族、一個國家（名稱不確定，有待談判）和兩種不同制度」的基礎上討論統一。
如果上述詮釋準確的話，金正恩暗示有可能使用特殊的朝鮮版「一個國家、一個民族、兩個制度」來應對兩韓的政治未來。
用一國兩制討論兩韓未來的想法並不新鮮，因為南韓當局過去就曾興起過這樣的念頭（據報道，曾有幾名南韓官員被派到香港研究一國兩制的概念和實施），金正恩這次不過增加了「一個民族」的觀念。
最終，如果兩韓關係變得更加穩定和融洽，就應該探索這種創新的、具有潛在突破性的「一個國家、一個民族、兩種制度」的模式，兩韓統一才可能成為現實。
如果雙方都將和平問題視為當務之急，那麼當前朝鮮半島的危機也提供了冷靜和對話的機會。雙方都需要縮減軍事活動來回應彼此。否則，軍事事故和/或衝突可能會一觸即發。
總而言之，金正恩和尹錫悅的各自的言辭升級，與平壤和首爾展示軍事實力的增加相符。當前局勢正進入一場雙方都必須化解的危機。北韓的強硬立場可能會對南韓2027年總統選舉結果產生意想不到的後果，特別是南韓民眾將投票表決定尹錫悅及執政國民力量黨受歡迎程度之際。然而，從現在到2027年，真正的危險在於「秀肌肉」的行動，可能升級為真正的軍事衝突。雙方已經在口頭和軍事上強化了立場；互相威懾導致雙方加碼展示軍事實力，使朝鮮半島陷入軍事管控危機。
Military deterrence, muscle-flexing and crisis in the Korean Peninsula
The military situation in the Korean peninsula has suddenly deteriorated after a series of remarks made by the North Korean and South Korean leaders and a range of military exercises from the South Korean and the US, followed by North Korean artillery action. Military deterrence on both sides of the Korean peninsula has led to real military muscle-flexing, plunging the relations between North Korea and South Korea into an unprecedented military crisis five years after the September 2018 inter-Korean summit when both sides were committed to achieving a Korean peninsula free from nuclear weapons.
The current crisis could be trace back to a series of remarks made by the political leaders of both North Korea and South Korea, followed by military exercises and actions – an ominous sign that may bring about either military accidents or conflicts in 2024.
On January 1, 2024, South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol remarked that South Korea and the US would finish strengthening a defence position that would “completely block” the North Korean missile threat, and that the Seoul-Washington alliance will achieve “genuine and permanent peace” based on military strength. In July 2023, both friendly capitalistic countries formed a Nuclear Consultative Group with the US commitment to protecting South Korea with a nuclear arsenal. This group held its second meeting on December 16, after which a statement was released by the US saying that Washington would have a swift and decisive response if there is any North Korean attack against South Korea.
Military relations between South and North Korea became challenging in 2023, when Pyongyang stepped up its military armament and as Kim Jong Un visited Russia and expressed his appreciation with the Russian advanced military weaponry. At the same time, North Korea and South Korea have enhanced their military surveillance along the border.
In November 2023, North Korea fired its first spy satellite into the orbit, providing the necessary glimpse of South Korea’s military capabilities, sites, and targets. South Korea remarked that such a satellite launch violated a UN Security Council resolution prohibiting Pyongyang to utilize ballistic missile technology. By December 2023, the Korean Central News Agency reported that North Korea would strengthen the spy satellite programs by having three additional satellites in 2024. Furthermore, it would consolidate its nuclear arsenal and military drones. The military race over space would aim at giving North Korea an edge over South Korea – a move that explained why South Korea and the US had to respond by strengthening their nuclear weapon cooperation.
The entire year of 2023 witnessed the continuous military push from North Korea, which launched inter-continental ballistic missiles tests, like the long-range and sold-fuelled Hwasong-18 missile, and which deployed more military weapons, including a nuclear missile submarine, aircraft carriers and large air bombers.
Kim Jong-Un delivered an important speech on December 27, 2023 during the 8th Central Committee meeting of the Workers’ Party, saying that both North Korea and North Korea are reaching the stage of becoming hostile countries, and that North Korea’s nuclear war “deterrent” would not hesitate to take action if Seoul and Wahington adopt a military confrontation with Pyongyang – an important remark pointing to Kim’s tendency to change from military “deterrence” to a concrete action of flexing its military muscle further if South Korea and the US were to conduct military exercises.
Kim remarked that the South Korean and US side regarded North Korea as “the main enemy,” that both countries sought to promote regime “collapse” of Pyongyang, and that they tried to unify the north through a process of “absorption.” In response to the Washington-Seoul alliance, Kim added that Pyongyang would expand its strategic cooperation with “anti-imperialist independent” countries, implying Russia which has been provided with North Korean weapons in its Ukrainian war.
What was alarming about Kim’s speech was that he mentioned the need for “militant tasks for the People’s Army and he munitions industry, nuclear weapons and civil defence sectors to further accelerate the war preparations.”
Kim’s speech was an important one as he pointed to the danger of an armed confrontation in the Korean peninsula as a “fast” phenomenon “becoming a reality.” His comment was made in response to the escalated protective actions from both South Korea and the US – a strengthened cooperative attempt that made Kim to mention the North Korean necessity of “sharpening the treasured sword” to protect itself.
His speech content was released by the North Korean side on January 1, 2024, to time in the North Korean military artillery reactions on January 5 to the military exercise between South Korea and US scheduled to be held for a week starting from December 29, 2023.
The rhetorical escalation of Kim was matched by a corresponding phenomenon from his South Korean counterpart, President Yoon, who on December 28 “urge you to immediately and firmly crush the enemy’s will for a provocation on the spot.”
Even though North Korea has been suffering from food shortage even after the end of Covid-19 and its variants, its military-first policy has remained unchanged, and its militarization efforts were maximized and accelerated throughout 2023.
While Kim and his think tank and military generals perceived the North Korean militarization as an effective “deterrent” against the alliance formed by the US and South Korea, the Washington-Seoul side have been determined to consolidate their “deterrence” against the North Korean threat. Mutual perceptions of military threats have therefore propelled both sides to flex their military muscles.
On December 29, 2023, South Korea and the US began a week-long firing drill near the North Korean border. The South Korean side said that the joint military exercise aimed at testing and enhancing military combat readiness simulating any enemy aggression. The joint military exercise involved 110 large combat weapons, including the South Korean tanks, anti-aircraft artillery, US aircrafts and armoured vehicles. The South Korean navy was also involved, embracing anti-submarine manoeuvres in the waters in the east, west and the south, and mobilizing destroyers, frigates, and corvettes.
South Korea and the US also increased the scope and intensity of their joint military exercises in 2023 as a response to the escalating military preparations on the Pyongyang side. In other words, every escalated military preparation from each of the two sides – North Korea on the one hand and South Korea and US on the other hand – triggered kneejerk reaction from the other side, thereby escalating military tensions further and cyclically.
On the morning of January 5, 2024, North Korea fired two hundred rounds of artillery into the waters near the western sea border with South Korea, especially the South Korean islands, namely Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong islands. In response, the South Korean government appealed to the residents in the islands to hide in their shelters. Baengnyeong island has 5,000 residents and Yeonpyeong has 2,000 citizens.
In 2010, the North Korean artillery fire reached the island of Yeonpyeong, killing two marines and two civilians, injuring fifteen other soldiers and two civilians. At that time, the North Korean side put the blame on the South Korean side, saying that the attack was a response to a South Korean artillery drill in the waters near Yeonpyeong.
The artillery on the morning of January 5, 2024 fell north of the northern limit line, which was a disputed border drawn up by the UN by the end of the Korean war in 1953. The North Korean artillery fire and its reach matched Kim’s remarks as implying that both North Korea and South Korea are approaching the stage of becoming belligerent states.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the North Korean artillery fire was a provocative act that “threatens peace and heighten tensions on the Korean peninsula.”
In response, the South Korean military held its maritime shooting exercise on the afternoon of Friday, illustrating its kneejerk reaction cyclically.
However, such a cycle of military responses from both sides would lead to tremendous dangers of triggering any military accidents and even conflicts in the year 2024.
The Figure below illustrates a matrix in the military relations between South Korea and North Korea. With both sides holding firm militarily, a military crisis has already emerged with the possibility of leading to accidents or conflicts. If both sides back down, the situation would return to the status quo and stability. If either side backs down, the other side is seen as being a dominant and victorious military player – not a good sign leading to the status quo.
Note: I design this figure after reading Frank C. Zagare, The Dynamics of Deterrence (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987), p. 15.
Kim’s speech on December 27, which was reported by the Korean Central News Agency on December 31, had interesting ideas that implicitly pointed to the possibility of dialogue between North Korea and South Korea in the future.
For the first time in his speech, Kim mentioned that the two Korean sides would not be able to reunite and that both sides are no longer the same nation. However, he said that the South Korean side insists on one system unification based on “absorption” and “system.” What he implied significantly is that unless both North Korea and South Korea adopt a system of two systems – two different political, social, economic, and military systems – they would not be able to reunite. Kim also remarked that North Korea insists on unification based on “one nation, one country and two systems.” If so, what he meant is that North Korea and South Korea would have the chance of discussing unification based on “one Korean nation, one country (name unclear and up to negotiations) and two different systems.”
If this interpretation above is accurate, Kim alludes to the possibility of using a special Korean version of “one country, one nation, two systems” to deal with the political future of two Koreas.
The idea of using “one country, two systems” to discuss the future of the two Korean sides is not new as the South Korean authorities in the past did toy with this idea (at one time it was reported that a few officials were sent to Hong Kong to study the concept and implementation of “one country, two systems”), but Kim this time adds the concept of “one nation.”
Eventually, both the South Korean and North Korean sides, if their relations become more stable and cordial, should explore this innovative and potentially breakthrough formula of “one country, one nation and two systems” so that reunification of the two Koreas would become a realistic possibility.
The current crisis in the Korean peninsula also presents the opportunities for calmness and dialogue, if both sides consider the question of peace as an urgent priority. Both sides need to scale down their military activities in response to the other side. Otherwise, military accidents and/or conflicts may suddenly erupt.
In conclusion, the rhetorical escalations of Kim Jong Un and Yoon Suk Yeol have matched the increase in flexing the military muscles of both North Korea and South Korea, respectively. The current situation is entering a crisis in which both sides must defuse. The hardline stance of North Korea may have an unintended consequence of shaping the presidential election result of South Korea in 2027, especially at a time when Yoon’s popularity and his ruling People Power Party will be put to a vote by the South Koreans. From now to 2027, however, there is a realistic danger of escalating muscle-flexing activities into a real military conflict. Both sides have already hardened their position verbally and militarily. Deterrence from both sides have led to increases in military muscle-flexing, which is now plunging the Korean peninsula into a crisis of military management.
原刊於澳門新聞通訊社（MNA）網站，本社獲作者授權轉載。原文網址：http://tinyurl.com/yeyp8d3p
