1940年代後期冷戰的到來，極大地改變了美國對台灣的立場。在經歷了短暫的冷漠和被忽視之後，台灣在朝鮮戰爭後，愈來愈被視為對美國戰略利益和安全至關重要。此後，儘管美國對台灣和中國大陸的和平統一採取漠不關心甚至「樂見其成」的調侃態度，但美國實際的政策始終是通過任何可用的手段，阻止台灣與大陸統一，除非這樣做的代價變得難以承受。
長期以來，台灣問題關係到中國的統一和中國內戰的最終結束，最好是通過和平方式，以及防止台灣單方面宣布獨立。同時台灣願意承認和堅持「一個中國」原則，是兩岸和平的前提。然而，中國的崛起，以及美國將崛起的中國貼上戰略對手和生存威脅的標籤，導致後者將台灣納入其軍事和非軍事意義上遏制、孤立和削弱中國的大戰略。 因此，在中國看來，台灣不僅是國家統一問題，也迅速成為國家安全穩定的戰略威脅。多年來，這種感知到來自台灣的威脅，從根本上改變了北京對美國和台灣的戰略。
美國的戰略角度
著名冷戰學者約翰·加迪斯（John L Gaddis）在他的《長期的和平》一書中記錄了1940年代美國對台灣的立場。用他的話說：「一旦蔣介石明顯無法控制大陸，無論是在五角大樓、國務院還是遠東司令部，台灣的戰略重要性都沒有任何疑問。1948 年末，參謀長聯席會議得出結論，台灣由『克里姆林宮指揮的共產黨人』主宰的前景，將『嚴重損害我們的國家安全』，因為這將使共產黨人有能力控制日本和馬來亞之間海上航道的交流，並威脅到菲律賓、琉球，並最終威脅日本本身。1949年初國務院向國家安全委員會提交的一份報告草稿認為，『美國的基本目標應該是在台灣和澎湖列島拒絕共產黨』。（美國將軍）麥克阿瑟在這一點上特別堅定。他告訴美國國務院負責東北亞事務的畢曉普（Max W Bishop），『如果台灣倒向中共，我們在遠東的整個防禦據點肯定（將會）失去；它最終只會導致我們的防線退回美國大陸的西海岸』。麥克阿瑟甚至將台灣形容為『永不沉沒的航空母艦和潛艇補給艦』，絕不應該讓其落入美國的敵人控制之下」。
隨着時間的推移，台灣對美國的戰略價值不僅沒有減少，反而由於中國的急速崛起，特別是中國不斷增長的軍事力量而大大增加。中國也被認為是挑戰美國全球霸權的「復仇主義」力量。用兩位美國戰略家理查德·哈斯（Richard Haass）和大衛·薩克斯（David Sacks）的話來說：「然而，有一點在這40年中沒有改變：中國強加對台灣的主權與美國的利益仍然背道而馳。如果美國未能對中國這樣的武力威脅作出回應，日本和韓國等美國在區內的盟友將得出結論，美國不可依靠，並且正在撤出該地區。然後，這些亞洲盟友要麼接納中國，導致美國同盟的解體和力量平衡的崩潰，要麼他們將尋求核武器以實現戰略上的自力更生。任何一種情況都會大大增加在這個世界經濟中心和大多數人民居住的地區發生戰爭的可能性」。此外，「中國的軍隊將不再被困在第一島鏈內：它的海軍將有能力將中國的力量投射到整個西太平洋」。
不可否認，這些涉台觀點代表了美國政界和知識界的主導地位。
鑑於台灣對美國的戰略利益及其在盟國和夥伴中的信譽至關重要，美國將難以心平氣和地接受中國大陸和台灣統一的事實，即使統一以和平方式進行，大部分台灣居民支持與大陸統一，中國不再被妖魔化為「專制」國家。
為了永久阻止台灣與中國大陸統一，把台灣拴在美國的戰車上，美國在過去幾十年加大了支持台獨勢力的力度，打壓那些支持與中國大陸和解的勢力，把台灣視為「獨立政治實體」，通過軍售加強台灣的防禦能力，增加美台高層官方接觸，將台灣堅定地納入旨在遏制中國的「自由開放的印太戰略」，加強台灣在「第一島鏈」中的作用，將美國對台灣的立場從「戰略模糊」轉為「戰略明確」，向台獨分子保證，他們將受到軍事保護，免受大陸「侵略」，向台灣軍隊提供培訓，促進台灣參與國際事務的機會，威脅仍然承認台灣為獨立國家的各國不與台灣斷交，擴大美日同盟以涵蓋海峽兩岸衝突，將歐盟、四方安全對話（Quad）和「澳英美聯盟」（AUKUS）納入台灣的事務，與台灣發展更緊密的經濟聯繫。在中方看來，這一切都是美方為拉開兩岸民眾政治和心理鴻溝、加深台灣對美國及其盟國的依賴、增加中國大陸統一台灣難度的挑釁行為。
綜上所述，這些挑釁行為也是使台灣成為中國安全威脅的嚴重企圖，特別是試圖將中國海軍永遠限制在「第一島鏈」內，從而削弱中國保護其海外利益的能力。所有這些措施也將使美國處於有利的戰略地位，以防兩國發生軍事衝突，在此期間，台灣將成為美國進攻中國大陸的前沿基地。
北京的戰略角度
從北京的戰略角度來看，台灣問題已迅速轉變為國家安全問題，需要重點關注。與美國結盟的「獨立」台灣，將對中國構成生存安全的威脅。只要台灣問題仍然是國家統一的問題，只要台灣不片面宣布法理上獨立，中國可以採取「戰略耐心」；和平統一仍是優先的戰略目標。然而，一旦台灣因美國的陰謀而演變成愈來愈令人擔憂和迫在眉睫的國家安全威脅，中國的戰略考量將發生巨大變化。與台灣建立更緊密的經濟聯繫，以及耐心贏得台灣民眾的心，以實現國家統一，從長遠來看，將成為次要且難以實現的戰略目標，而首要的當務之急，是以任何必要的手段，永久消滅台灣對國家安全的威脅。
對於美國日益好戰和不負責任的台灣政策，北京威受到的威脅，最近充分反映在習近平主席和其他中國高級官員的尖銳言辭中。2022年6月13日，中央外事工作委員會辦公室主任楊潔篪與美國國家安全顧問傑克‧蘇利文（Jake Sullivan）在盧森堡舉行第三次會晤。楊潔篪警告蘇利文，如果台灣問題處理不好，將產生「顛覆性影響」。楊潔篪指出，這個風險不僅存在，還會隨着美國大搞「以台制華」、台灣當局大搞「倚美謀獨」而不斷升高。楊潔篪發出警告的前一天，國防部長魏鳳和在新加坡舉行的香格里拉對話會上警告，若有人膽敢把台灣分裂出去，「一定會不惜一戰、不惜代價，一定會打到底」。
最重要的是，習近平主席在2022年7月28日的電話通話中，強硬地宣布中國絕不為任何形式的台獨勢力留下任何空間，並尖銳地警告拜登總統，「玩火必自焚，希望美方看清楚這一點」。這一警告是在美國眾議院議長南茜‧佩洛西（Nancy Patricia Pelosi） 8月可能訪問台灣導致緊張局勢加劇之際發出的。中國認為，美國正在採取「切香腸」的方式，掏空「一個中國」原則，推動台灣實現事實上甚至法理上的獨立。更不妙的是，中國現在堅信美國決心維持兩岸分裂的現狀。
對周遭及香港的影響
由於中國和美國都認為台灣對其安全至關重要，而美國也愈來愈多地將台灣用作對抗中國的「前沿基地」，因此台海已成為兩個超級大國之間爆發軍事衝突的火藥桶，有可能對世界造成災難性的後果。美中在台灣爆發戰爭，將導致寶島徹底被摧毀。為避免這場災難，台灣民眾必須迫使親台獨當局停止讓台灣被美國用來對付中國，通過重新承認「一個中國」原則，尋求與大陸和解，並促使美國停止干涉兩岸事務。
就香港而言，不可避免地會受到美中在台灣問題上衝突的嚴重影響，尤其是美國將使用一切可能的手段「摧毀」香港和削弱中國。儘管香港沒有辦法改變有關台灣的事態發展，但特區政府和香港居民都必須密切關注台灣局勢，採取積極措施，盡量減少兩岸出現危機後對香港的不利影響。毋庸置疑，特區政府和中央政府共同就兩岸事態發展進行的規劃和行動，是不可或缺的。
Taiwan is now a national security issue for China
The advent of the Cold War in the late 1940s substantially changed the position of the United States toward Taiwan. After a short interlude of indifference and neglect, Taiwan was increasingly seen as essential to US strategic interests and security after the Korean War. Thenceforth, notwithstanding all the tongue-in-cheek statements about the US taking a nonchalant or even positive stance toward the “peaceful” reunification of Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, the actual policy of the US is always that of forestalling Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland by whatever means available unless the cost of doing so becomes unbearable.
For a long time, the Taiwan question to China pertains to the country’s reunification and the ultimate end of the Chinese civil war, preferably by peaceful means, and to prevent Taiwan’s unilateral declaration of independence. Meanwhile, the willingness of Taiwan to recognize and stick by the “one China” principle is the prerequisite for cross-Straits peace. However, the rise of China and the labeling of rising China as a strategic rival and an existential threat by the US has led the latter to incorporate Taiwan into its grand strategy to contain, isolate and weaken China in both the military and nonmilitary senses. Consequently, in the eyes of China, Taiwan is not just an issue of national reunification but has also fast become a strategic threat to national security and stability. This perceived threat from Taiwan has over the years altered fundamentally Beijing’s strategy toward both the US and Taiwan.
In his book titled The Long Peace, John L Gaddis, a prominent scholar of the Cold War, documents the position of the US toward Taiwan in the 1940s. In his words: “There was never any question, whether in the Pentagon, the State Department, or the Far East Command, as to the strategic importance of Taiwan once it became apparent that Chiang Kai-shek could not retain control of the mainland. The prospect of a Taiwan dominated by ‘Kremlin-directed Communists,’ the Joint Chiefs (of Staff) concluded late in 1948, would be ‘very seriously detrimental to our national security’, since it would give the Communists the capability of dominating sea lanes of communication between Japan and Malaya, and of threatening the Philippines, the Ryukyus, and ultimately Japan itself. A State Department draft report to the National Security Council early in 1949 argued that ‘the basic aim of the US should be to deny Formosa and the Pescadores to the Communists.’ (US General Douglas) MacArthur was particularly adamant on this point. He told Max W Bishop, chief of the State Department’s Division of Northeast Asian Affairs, that ‘if Formosa went to the Chinese Communists our whole defensive position in the Far East (would be) definitely lost; that it could only result eventually in putting our defensive line back to the west coast of the continental United States’.” McArthur even characterized Taiwan as “an unsinkable aircraft carrier and submarine tender” that should never be allowed to fall under the control of the enemies of the US.
Over time, the strategic value of Taiwan to the US has not only not diminished but has instead vastly increased as a result of the dramatic rise of China, particularly its growing military power. China is also considered a “revanchist” power challenging the global hegemony of the US. In the words of two American strategists, Richard Haass and David Sacks: “One thing, however, has not changed over these four decades: an imposed Chinese takeover of Taiwan remains antithetical to US interests. If the United States fails to respond to such a Chinese use of force, regional US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, will conclude that the United States cannot be relied upon and that it is pulling back from the region. These Asian allies would then either accommodate China, leading to the dissolution of US alliances and the crumbling of the balance of power, or they would seek nuclear weapons in a bid to become strategically self-reliant. Either scenario would greatly increase the chance of war in a region that is central to the world’s economy and home to most of its people.” Moreover, “China’s military would no longer be bottled up within the first island chain: Its navy would instead have the ability to project Chinese power throughout the Western Pacific.” Undeniably, these views concerning Taiwan represent the dominant position in the political and intellectual circles of the US.
Given the crucial importance of Taiwan to the US strategic interests as well as to its credibility among its allies and partners, it stretches the belief that the US will accept with equanimity the reunification of the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, even if the reunification comes about peacefully, a majority of the Taiwan residents support reunification with the mainland, and China is no longer demonized as an “authoritarian” nation.
In order to permanently prevent Taiwan from reunifying with the Chinese mainland and tether Taiwan to the US chariot, the US has in the last couple of decades ratcheted up its support for the forces advocating the independence of Taiwan, pressurized those forces backing rapprochement with the Chinese mainland, treated Taiwan as “an independent political entity,” strengthened Taiwan’s defense capabilities through arms sales, increased high-level official contacts between the US and Taiwan, brought Taiwan firmly into the “free and open Indo-Pacific strategy” purported to contain China, enhanced Taiwan’s role in the “first island chain,” changed the US stance on Taiwan from “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity”, assured Taiwan separatists that they would be militarily protected against “invasion” from the mainland, provided training to the armed forces of Taiwan, promoted opportunities for Taiwan to take part in international affairs, threatened countries still recognizing Taiwan as an independent country not to cut diplomatic ties with it, widened the US-Japanese alliance to cover cross-Straits conflict, drew the European Union, the Quad and AUKUS into the Taiwan scene, and developed closer economic ties with Taiwan. From China’s point of view, all these are provocative actions on the part of the US to widen the political and psychological chasm between the people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, heighten Taiwan’s dependence on the US and its allies, and make the reunification of China more difficult.
Taken together, these provocative actions are also serious efforts to make Taiwan a threat to China’s security, particularly in trying to bottle up the Chinese naval forces forever inside the “first island chain”, thus undermining China’s capability to protect its overseas interests. All these measures will also put the US in an advantageous strategic position in case any military conflict erupted between the two countries, during which Taiwan will become the forward base to attack the Chinese mainland by the US.
From Beijing’s strategic point of view, the Taiwan question has rapidly transformed into an issue of national security that dictates primary attention. An “independent” Taiwan allied with the US will be an existential security threat to China. Insofar as the Taiwan question remains an issue of national reunification, China can afford to adopt strategic patience as long as Taiwan does not declare de jure independence. Peaceful reunification will continue to be the preferred strategic goal. However, once Taiwan mutates into a national security threat that is getting increasingly alarming and immediate because of US machinations, China’s strategic calculus will change drastically. Trying to reunify the country by forging closer economic ties with Taiwan and patiently winning the hearts and minds of the Taiwan residents over the long run will become secondary and hard-to-achieve strategic goals, and the primary imperative will instead be to obliterate permanently Taiwan as a national security threat by whatever means is necessary.
Beijing’s sense of threat coming from the increasingly bellicose and irresponsible Taiwan policy of the US is amply reflected lately in the harsh words of President Xi Jinping and other top Chinese officials. China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan held their third meeting in Luxembourg on June 13, 2022. Yang warned Sullivan that there would be “cataclysmic effects” if the Taiwan problem was not handled properly. “This risk will increase if the US continues its approach of ‘using Taiwan to contain China’ and Taiwan’s adoption of ‘relying on the US for independence’,” Yang said. The warning by Yang came just a day after Defense Minister Wei Fenghe told the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that Beijing would fight “at all costs” against any effort to make Taiwan independent.
Most importantly, in a phone call on July 28, 2022, President Xi declared forcefully that China would not provide any room for the “Taiwan independence forces” and pointedly warned President Joe Biden that “those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this”. This warning was issued as tensions mounted over the possible trip of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August. China believes that the US is adopting a “salami-slice” approach to abandon the “one-China principle” and push for Taiwan into de facto if not de jure independence. More ominously, China now firmly believes that the US is determined to maintain the status quo of a divided China.
As both China and the US see Taiwan as essential to their security and the US is increasingly using Taiwan as a “forward base” against China, the Taiwan Straits has become a tinderbox where military conflict between the two superpowers might flare up with disastrous consequences for the world. A US-China war over Taiwan would see the island completely devastated. To avoid this catastrophe, the Taiwan residents must force the pro-independence Taiwan authorities to stop allowing Taiwan to be used by the US against China, seek rapprochement with the mainland via re-recognizing the “one China” principle, and tell the US to stop meddling in cross-Straits affairs.
Hong Kong, for its part, will unavoidably be seriously affected by the fallout from the US-China clash over Taiwan, especially in the sense that the US will use all means available to “destroy” Hong Kong and weaken China. Even though Hong Kong has no means to change the course of events concerning Taiwan, both the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government and the residents of Hong Kong have to closely monitor the Taiwan situation and take proactive steps to minimize the adverse impact on Hong Kong stemming from cross-Straits crises. It goes without saying that concerted planning and action of the HKSAR government and the central government are indispensable.
