7月24日上午，中國國防部新聞發言人回應香港近日形勢，稱《中華人民共和國香港特別行政區駐軍法》的第三章第14條有明確規定。
這一法條規定，香港特區政府可以向中央政府請求香港駐軍協助維持社會治安和救助災害。
本人認為除非事態嚴重至會引至中共倒台，不相信中共會放解放軍入城。若然發生，香港的經濟、股市、樓價等會災難性崩潰。
1. 大陸極需要香港作為一個對外窗户。
1.1 人民幣仍然未能在世界自由兌換。人民幣國際化需要香港。
1.2 香港作為一個獨立關税區，可以進口很多大陸不能進口的戰略性和高科技物資。
1.3 香港是大湾區的關鍵城市，若香港災難性崩潰，大灣區計劃基本上玩完。
1.4 香港是中資企業的最大重要集資渠道。
1.5 大陸的外來投資，70%來自香港。
2. 傳聞2014年雨傘運動，梁振英要求中央派解放軍清場，習大拒絶。不是因為習大仁慈，而是當年中資企業已佔香港股市56%。若股市大跌，中資損失最大。今日中資佔港股市應該更大。
3. 香港是大陸的走資渠道，包括為國企、民企、紅二代、甚至是習大家族服務。渠道若然取消，會嚴重得罪各界利益集會，他們會群起攻擊。
4. 一個兩地走的大陸人說什麼行動都要等到十一國慶之後，尤其今年係70周年國慶。
5. 中美貿易戰是長期的持久的，大陸在這環境更需要香港。
6. 7月29日港澳辦記者會上，没有主動提到解放軍入城。
On 24 July at a press conference introducing China new defence white paper, when asked how the Defense Ministry would handle the situation in Hong Kong, a spokesman said only that “Article 14 of the garrison law has clear stipulations”
It is my humble opinion that unless the situation is so serious as to threaten the existence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), I do not believe that the CCP will send the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into the city. If it happens, Hong Kong’s economy, stock market, property prices, etc will collapse catastrophically.
1. The mainland needs Hong Kong as an window to the world.
1.1 The RMB is still not freely convertible in the world. The internationalisation of the RMB needs Hong Kong.
1.2 As an independent customs territory, Hong Kong can import a lot of strategic and high tech materials that the mainland cannot import.
1.3 Hong Kong is a key city in the Greater Bay Area, which is very important part of the current 5 year plan for China. With the catastrophic collapse of Hong Kong, the Greater Bay Area plan is basically finished.
1.4 Hong Kong is the primary channel for financing by Chinese enterprises.
1.5 70% of foreign investment comes from Hong Kong.
2. There were rumour during the Umbrella Movement in 2014, CY Leung asked the central government to send the PLA to clear the protesters, and President Xi refused. The reason is not that Xi is benovelent, but that Chinese (red capital) companies already accounted for 56% of the Hong Kong stock market capitalisation. If the stock market falls sharply, Chinese losses will be the largest. Today’s Chinese capital in the Hong Kong stock market should be even larger.
3. Hong Kong is a channel of capital outflow for Mainland China, including for state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, the Red second generation, and even the Xi family. If the channel is blocked, it will seriously offend the vested interest groups which will take serious retaliatory actions.
4. A Mainlander who travels frequently between Hong Kong and Mainland said that all actions must wait until after the National Day in October, especially for the 70th anniversary this year.
5. The China-US trade war is long-lasting and recurring. The Mainland needs Hong Kong more in this environment.
6. On 29 July, the main text of the press conference of Hong Kong and Macau Office on Hong did not mention PLA.
