為期4天的西太平洋海軍論壇第19屆年會（WPNS）於2024年4月22日在中國山東省青島市舉行，來自29個國家的約180名海軍代表參加；然而，由於一些相關國家之間相互存在着深刻的不信任和對軍事威脅的看法，這次海軍論壇似乎有其局限。
張又俠：中國不惹事，也決不怕事
西太平洋海軍論壇成立於1988年，目前有23個成員國和7個觀察員國。上一屆論壇於2022年在日本橫濱舉行。
第19屆西太平洋海軍論壇旨在縮小海洋問題分歧，建立全球海洋治理機制，試圖透過對話和友好協商解決各國海洋問題和爭端。本次活動由中央軍委副主席張又俠在開幕儀式上致辭。張又俠表示，中國軍隊積極參與海上安全國際合作，將繼續在國際軍事合作中發揮積極作用。
他又表示：「我們要堅決摒棄冷戰思維，攜手締造和平安寧，透過對話協商彌合分歧，共商共建治理規則，以務實成果推動海洋安全治理邁上新台階。」張又俠還說，中國不會惹事，也決不怕事，中國軍隊將堅決捍衛祖國統一和國家利益。
這個兩年一次的會議，以「命運與共的海洋」為主題，是繼2014年後第二次在中國舉辦。海軍代表們討論了全球安全倡議和基於海上安全合作的海上和平與秩序，遵守國際法，以及完善全球海洋治理。據了解，此次海軍論壇年會也討論了各國如何避免無人機在海上發生衝突的可能性，同時更新海上事故規則和法規。海上事故規則和條例是該海軍論壇十年前通過的，並於2016年被東盟視為適用於處理南海發生的任何事故。
美國太平洋艦隊司令克勒上將（Admiral Stephen Koehler ）與來自澳洲、法國、印度、英國、俄羅斯、日本、韓國、柬埔寨、智利、印尼和巴基斯坦的其他代表出席了海軍論壇年會。據《環球時報》報道，媒體爭相採訪美國代表，但美國代表並未回答任何問題。根據台灣《聯合報》報道，俄羅斯海軍總司令莫伊謝耶夫（Alexander Moiseyev）海軍上將也出席了論壇年會。
美菲聯合軍演 視中國為「威脅」
西太平洋海軍論壇第19屆年會開幕式舉行當天，美國和菲律賓在菲律賓舉行了一年一度的「肩並肩」（Balikatan）聯合軍演，傳遞出將中國海軍在亞太地區的行動視為「威脅」的態度。
此外，菲律賓代表缺席青島西太平洋海軍論壇年會，這是對與中國在南海島礁主權爭議不滿的政治表態。近期中國海船與菲律賓船隻在南海對峙，中方使用高壓水砲，以及菲方不斷的行動，使中菲關係進一步惡化。因此，菲律賓缺席西太平洋海軍論壇年會，以及美國代表在面對傳媒提問時保持沉默，或許顯示美菲兩國對中國海軍在南海的舉動感到不滿。也許幸運的是，習近平主席和拜登總統在舊金山會晤後，中美海軍軍官在高層軍事溝通的原則下恢復了會談。
中方認為，菲律賓船隻近期在南海有爭議島礁附近的舉動，背離了中國政府與前總統杜特爾特領導下的菲律賓政府之間的默契。事實上，菲律賓政府在歷任總統領導下政治和外交取向的反覆，已成為塑造菲中軍海軍關係的關鍵因素。挑戰在於兩國如何能夠並且將如何以外交方式，巧妙、和平地處理對南海島礁的意見分歧和主權爭端。
張又俠上將4月22日的開幕致辭呼籲放棄「冷戰思維」──這是針對美國及其盟友的言論，但沒有點名那個超級大國。張又俠稱中國「對無理挑釁將堅決據理反制」，這似乎是對任何在南海採取此類行動的國家的警告。
如果說這次海軍論壇年會代表了相關國家的軍事外交，那麼由於一些國家相互之間深刻的不信任和對軍事威脅的看法，它確實有其局限。
本屆海軍論壇年會恰逢中國人民解放軍海軍成立75周年，論壇年會舉行之際，中國人民解放軍海軍正在舉行公眾紀念活動。紀念活動在青島、大連、煙台、上海、廈門、廣州、湛江、海口、三亞等主要軍港舉行。人們預計，到2035年，中國海軍艦隊或許將成為世界「最大」的海軍艦隊，此舉符合解放軍到2027年建軍100周年，成為「世界一流」軍隊的計劃。
奧斯汀：繼續深化盟友國防關係
海軍論壇年會結束後約10天，美國國防部長奧斯汀前往檀香山歐胡島會見澳洲、日本和菲律賓國防部長。他表示，在「中國威脅」的背景下，會談將繼續就如何深化美國盟友之間的國防和安全關係取得「歷史性進展」。美國印太司令部司令阿奎利諾海軍上將（Admiral John C. Aquilino）表達了這種看法，他於2024年3月21日向參議院表示，中國的軍事行動「變得更加好戰」，（而且）他們的措辭更加清晰（《空天軍雜誌》，2024年3月21日）。
5月4日，奧斯汀主持交接儀式，印太司令部新任司令帕帕羅（Samuel Paparo）接替阿奎利諾。奧斯汀表示，中國「繼續採取愈來愈多的脅迫行為，我們可以看到，在台灣海峽對面、東海和南海、與印度實際控制線沿線的太平洋島國之間及更多地區。」（《夏威夷今日新聞》， 2024年5 月4 日）。他甚至說，中國是「唯一一個國家有意願並且愈來愈有能力主宰印太地區並重塑全球秩序以合乎其專制願景。」（《夏威夷今日新聞》，2024年5月4日）。毫無疑問，中方肯定不同意他上述的觀點。
從客觀和分析的角度來看，奧斯汀的言論以及張又俠在西太平洋海軍論壇年會開幕致辭中的評論，分別說明美中相互之間對軍事威脅的深刻不信任對彼此的看法。
總而言之，西太平洋海軍論壇年會代表了相關成員國所進行的軍事外交，但由於美國、中國、菲律賓等一些國家之間對軍事威脅的深刻不信任和相互的看法，它具有很大的局限性。話雖如此，這次年會至少象徵相關國家願意坐下來交換意見，希望透過長期而艱難的對話和建立信任的過程，來解決海上的問題以至爭端。年會討論的一些問題，例如海上事故規則和條例的更新，具有重要的軍事和現實意義，因為它們涉及海軍艦艇和無人機等空中設備如何避免衝突和相互干擾。利於國際合作的必要性，有利於維護海上和平與安全，從而最大限度地減少軍事誤解和誤判的可能性。
Military diplomacy and its limitations
The four-day and 19th Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) was held in the city of Qingdao in China’s Shandong province on April 21, 2024, with the participation of some 180 naval representatives from 29 countries; nevertheless, the symposium appeared to have limitations due to the profound distrust and mutual perceptions of military threats among some of the countries concerned.
The WPNS was founded in 1988 and currently there are 23 member states and 7 observer states. The last forum was held in Japan’s Yokohama in 2022.
The 19th WPNS aimed at narrowing difference of opinions on maritime issues, establishing a mechanism of global maritime governance and attempting to resolve maritime issues and disputes among countries concerned through dialogue and friendly consultation. The event this time was kicked off by an opening speech from the vice chairman of the Chinese Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia. Zhang said that the Chinese armed forces actively participated in the international cooperation of maritime security and that China would continue to play a positive role in international military collaboration.
He also remarked: “We should resolutely abandon the Cold War mentality, join hands to create peace and stability, bridge differences through dialogue and consultation, jointly discuss and establish rules for governance, and push maritime security governance to a new level with practical results (Global Times, April 22, 2024).” Zhang added that China would not make troubles and would not be afraid of dealing with troubles, because the Chinese armed forces would resolutely safeguard China’s national unity and interests.
The biennial meeting carried the theme of “Oceans with a Shared Future,” and it was held in China the second time after it had hosted the event in 2014. The naval delegates discussed the Global Security Initiative and maritime peace and order based on maritime security cooperation, the observance on international law, and the improvement of global maritime governance. It was reported that the symposium also discussed how countries would avoid the possibility of clashes of drones on the seas, while updating the rules and regulations governing maritime accidents. The rules and regulations on maritime accidents were approved by the symposium ten years ago and they were regarded as applicable by the ASEAN in 2016 to deal with any accident in the South China Seas.
The US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Stephen Koehler attended the event, together with other delegates from Australia, France, India, Britain, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Cambodia, Chile, Indonesia and Pakistan. According to the Global Times, the media were eager to interview the US delegates, who however did not answer any questions. The Russian naval commander Alexander Moiseyev also attended the symposium, according to Taiwan’s United Daily News (April 22, 2024)
On the same day of the WPNS opening ceremony, the US and the Philippines conducted their annual Balikatan or “shoulder to shoulder” military exercise in the Philippines, projecting an image and a perception that they saw the Chinese naval moves in the Asia-Pacific region as a “threat.”
Furthermore, the delegates from the Philippines were absent in the Qingdao WPNS symposium – a political gesture of displeasure over the disputes with China about the sovereignty of islands and reefs in the South China Sea. The recent confrontation between the Chinese maritime vessels and the Philippine boats in the South China Sea, including the usage of water cannons by the Chinese side and the continuous moves from the Philippine side, has worsened the Sino-Philippines relations. As such, the absence of the Philippines in the WPNS symposium, together with the silence of US delegates in face of media questions, perhaps pointed to the two countries’ displeasure with the Chinese naval moves in the South China Sea. Perhaps fortunately, talks between the Chinese and US naval chiefs have resumed under the principle of military-to-military communications after the San Francisco meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden.
The Chinese side saw the recent moves of Philippine boats near the disputed reefs in South China Sea as a deviation from a tacit consensus between the Chinese government and the Philippines administration under the former President Rodrigo Duterte, who was more pro-Beijing and less pro-US than the current President Romualdez Marcos Jr. In fact, the fluctuating political and diplomatic orientation of the Philippines government under varying presidents has become a pivotal factor shaping the military and naval relations between the Philippines and China. The challenge is how the two countries can and will manage their opinion differences and sovereignty disputes over the reefs in the South China Sea in a diplomatic, skillful, and peaceful manner.
General Zhang Youxia’s opening speech on April 22 appealed to the abandonment of the “Cold War mentality” – a remark directed at the US and its allies without naming the superpower. Zhang’s comment that China would take “firm countermeasures against unreasonable provocations” appeared to be a warning to any country making such moves in South China Sea.
If the symposium represents military diplomacy of the countries involved, it does have limitations due to profound distrust and mutual perceptions of military threats among some of the countries.
This year’s WPNS coincided with the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, which was holding public commemorative events at a time when the symposium was held. The commemorative events were staged in major naval ports including Qingdao, Dalian, Yantai, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Zhanjiang, Haikou and Sanya. It has been anticipated that the Chinese naval fleet would perhaps become the world’s “largest” one by 2035 – a move that conformed to the plan of making the PLA to become “a world class” force by 2027, which would reach the 100 anniversaries of the founding of the PLA (United Daily News, April 22, 2024).”
About ten days after the symposium, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin went to Oahu in Honolulu to meet his counterparts from Australia, Japan and the Philippines. He said that the talks would continue their “historical progress” on how to deepen defense and security ties among the US allies amid the perception of “the China threat.” Such a perception was articulated by Admiral John C. Aquilino, who was the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command and who told the Senate on March 21, 2024, that the Chinese military actions were “becoming more belligerent [and] their rhetoric is clearer (Air & Space Forces Magazine, March 21, 2024).” The new head of the Indo-Pacific Command, Sam Paparo, succeeded Aquilino on May 4 when Austin presided over the handover ceremony. Austin said that China “continues to engage in increasingly coercive behavior and we can see that across the Taiwan Strait, in the East and South China Seas, among the Pacific Island countries along the line of actual control with India and more (Hawaii News Now, May 4, 2024).” He even went so far as to say that China is “the only country with both the will and increasingly the capacity to dominate the Indo-Pacific and to reshape the global order to suit its autocratic vision (Hawaii News Now, May 4, 2024).” Undoubtedly, the Chinese side must disagree with his views as reported above.
From an objective and analytical perspective, Austin’s remarks, together with Zhang’s comments in his opening speech of the WPNS, are a testimony to the profound distrust and mutual perceptions of military threats between the US and China respectively.
In conclusion, the WPNS represented the military diplomacy conducted by member countries involved, but it has severe limitations due to the profound distrust and mutual perceptions of military threats among some countries, including the US, China, the Philippines and many others. Having said that, the symposium at least symbolized the willingness among the countries concerned to sit down and share their views, hoping to resolve their maritime issues and perhaps disputes through a long but difficult process of dialogue and trust-building. Some of the issues that were discussed in the symposium, such as the updating of the rules and regulations on maritime accidents, are militarily and practically important, for they involve how naval vessels and aerial equipment like drones may avoid clashes and mutual disturbances – issues that are conducive to the avoidance of maritime accidents, the necessity of international cooperation, and the maintenance of maritime peace and security, thereby minimizing the possibilities of military misunderstandings and miscalculations.
原刊於澳門新聞通訊社（MNA）網站，本社獲作者授權轉載。原文網址：https://tinyurl.com/murmp554
