從巴西未能遏止P1變種病毒蔓延的失控情況來看，處理疫情應避免政治化，巴西應加緊學習東亞國家和地區，包括中國內地、香港、日本、澳門、南韓和台灣的做法，阻止這種致命疾病迅速傳播。
若然應對新冠病毒疫情過度政治化，對巴西的人命安全和經濟前景並不是一個好兆頭。
巴西新冠疫情失控 醫療系統瀕臨崩潰
據報道，自發生疫情以來，巴西大約有33萬3000人死亡，1300萬宗感染病例和1100萬康復病例。2021年4月初，巴西許多城市的醫療系統據報已瀕臨崩潰。
巴西全國27個州份中，有25個州超過80％的病床已被佔用。從2020年5月到2021年3月，染疫死亡人數和感染人數一直在上升，但沒有任何有效的遏制措施。
據了解，P1變種病毒傳染力更強，這種新型冠狀病毒可以避開免疫系統，患者二次感染的機率達到25％至60％。
儘管全球衛生專家呼籲巴西實施嚴格的檢疫和嚴格的社交距離措施，甚至封城行動，但巴西政府高層對這種好意的勸告似乎聽而不聞。
雖然巴西訂購了2億劑英國牛津/阿斯利康和中國科興疫苗，但只有4%即約800萬人接種了第一劑疫苗，這樣緩慢的接種速度，無法保護全民免受迅速蔓延的致命疾病侵襲。 一些研究表明，牛津/阿斯利康疫苗和科興疫苗都有助巴西民眾抵禦P1變種病毒。
不僅巴西，鄰國哥倫比亞、阿根廷、委內瑞拉和智利都發現了P1變種病毒，這是一個嚇人的訊號，所有南美洲國家都應採取更嚴格的措施來遏制新冠病毒擴散，以保護民眾的生命。
可是，巴西卻一直採取放任自流的態度應對這種疾病，而聯邦政府亦未能與各州政府合作，遏制疫情蔓延。
據報，儘管一些州份採取了遏制新冠病毒的措施，聯邦政府卻主張寬鬆應對，巴西政府領導層顯然低估了這種疾病的傳染力和致命性。
此前有報道指巴西總統博爾索納羅（Jair Bolsonaro）是美國前總統特朗普的崇拜者，主張放任自流應對疫情。博爾索納羅去年更把一些主張採取強硬措施遏制疫情的官員免職。
巴西應向東亞成功國家學習病毒防控
美國在特朗普執政期間未能遏制疫情蔓延，直至今年初拜登上台，宣告自由放任的方式無法制止病毒蔓延。除非巴西政府領袖和衛生官員加緊從東亞的成功例子中學習遏制新冠病毒，否則該國勢將走向災難。
東亞遏制新冠病毒的方式有三種：中國的強制模式、日本，南韓和台灣的民主模式，以及香港和澳門的半強制模式。
第一種強制模式的特徵是迅速封城、執行嚴格的檢疫措施，對所有違反規定的人處以重罰，快速生產國產疫苗，嚴格的邊境管制，以及動員民眾接種疫苗。
第二種民主模式的特點是逐步增加邊境管制、嚴格執行檢疫措施，利用科技追踪帶病毒者的行蹤和源頭，動員民眾戴口罩，以及廣泛清潔公共場所。
香港和澳門的模式，處於中國內地的強制與民主模式之間，包括強制隔離、必要的邊境管制、動員所有市民戴口罩和遵守個人衛生、呼籲市民接種疫苗等特徵，以及清潔公共場所、追蹤帶病毒者，以及政府補貼需要緊急財政支援的企業和個人。
巴西作為發展中國家，至少應該向南韓、日本和台灣的民主模式學習，盡快遏制疫情。美國特朗普政府的放任自流已證明是失敗的，巴西的任何仿傚特朗普政府的舉動，都只會造成人道、經濟和政治災難。
博爾索納羅政府至少要推行一場大規模的運動，動員所有巴西人戴口罩，待在家裏，在城市以至鄉村地區實行封城，採取社交隔離措施，以應對當前的危機。
不過，正如一些批評者指出，巴西聯邦政府甚至允許總統簽署法令，重開宗教場所、美容院、理髮店和體育館，甚至否決了立法防止病毒擴散（例如強制戴口罩）的措施。如果是這樣的話，對於新冠病毒的處理就已經過度政治化了。
如果在遏制新冠病毒的過程中允許政治參與，那就必須包括（政府領袖的）決斷力，他們應充分尊重衛生專家的建議，最重要是暫時犧牲經濟活動，採取嚴格的檢疫措施。應對病毒大流行的短期經濟下滑是必要之痛，如此，疫情才有望在民眾自律和非政治化但有決斷力的政府領導下逐漸消失。
OPINION – Brazil Must Learn from East Asia to Contain the Spread of Covid-19
Judging from the chaotic ways in which Brazil is failing to contain the spread of P1, a new variant of Covid-19, it should depoliticize the handling of Covid-19 and learn urgently from how East Asian states and cities (Mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, South Korea and Taiwan) stop the rapid spread of the deadly disease.
If not, the hyper politicization of handling Covid-19 does not bode well for the human safety and economic future of Brazil in the coming years.
In early April 2021, it was reported that the health system in many Brazilian cities was close to collapse due to the records of some 333,000 deaths, 13 million infected cases, and 11 million recovered cases since the pandemic began.
Over 80 per cent of the hospital beds were occupied in 25 of 27 states in Brazil. From May 2020 to March 2021, the spike in the number of deaths and infected cases kept rising without any effective curbs.
It was reported that the P1 variant is more easily transmittable than the original version of Covid-19. This new type of Covid-19 can evade immunity and reinfect patients at a figure of 25 per cent to 60 per cent.
Although global health experts have called on Brazil to implement strict quarantine measures, strict social distancing and even city lockdowns, the Brazilian leadership appears to turn a blind eye to such well-intentioned advice.
Although Brazil ordered 200 million doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca and CoronaVac vaccines, only 4 per cent of 8 million people had their first dose of vaccination – a slow rate that cannot protect the population against the rapidly spreading and lethal disease. Some studies have shown that both Oxford-AstraZeneca and CoronaVac vaccines can help Brazilian citizens to resist the P1 variant.
Given that Covid-19 can spread easily across national boundaries, Brazil’s neighbours such as Columbia, Argentina, Venezuela and Chile – have found P1 in their territories. This is an alarming sign that calls for all South American states to adopt stricter measures of containing the spread of Covid-19 to protect the lives of their own citizens.
Even Canada found some 550 cases of the P1 virus in Alberta on April 3.
While most South American states did adopt strict quarantine measures, Brazil has been adopting a largely laissez-faire approach to dealing with the disease – a problem compounded by the failure of the central government to work with the local states to curb Covid-19.
It was reported that some local states were taking measures to control Covid-19, but the federal government advocates a loose approach, a problem accompanied by the top Brazilian leaders who have clearly underestimated the rapidly spreading and extremely deadly nature of the disease.
President Jair Bolsonaro is reportedly an admirer of former US President Donald Trump and adopts a laissez-faire approach to tackling Covid-19. In 2020, Bolsonaro dismissed some officials who advocated a tough and more authoritarian approach to containing the disease.
In March 2021, he reshuffled six cabinet ministers, including a China hawk and Foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo, amid mounting criticisms that his government failed to get more vaccines from China and the US.
Given the abysmal failure of the Trump administration to stop the spread of Covid-19 until Joe Biden became the president in early 2021 and given the failure of any laissez-faire approach to dealing with Covid-19, Brazil is heading for a human disaster unless its top leadership and health officials learn urgently from the successful cases of East Asia to control Covid-19.
The East Asian approach to containing Covid-19 has three types: the authoritarian model of China, the democratic model of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and the semi-authoritarian model of Hong Kong and Macau.
The first authoritarian model was characterized by the rapid lockdown of cities, strict quarantine measures, heavy penalties on all citizens who violated the rules, the rapid local production of vaccines, strict border control with the outside world, and the mobilization of people to get vaccinated.
The second democratic model was characterized by incremental steps of border control, strict quarantine measures, the use of technology in tracing all the networks and origins of the virus-carriers, the mobilization of citizens to wear masks, and the extensive cleaning of public places.
The Hong Kong and Macau model is located somewhere between the mainland Chinese authoritarianism and the democratic model, including the features of strict quarantines, necessary border control, the mobilization of all citizens to wear masks and observe personal hygiene, the appeals to citizens to get vaccinations, the cleaning of public places, the tracing of the sources of virus-carriers, and the government’s subsidies of those citizens and enterprises in need for urgent financial support.
Brazil as a weak developmental state must learn from at least the democratic model of South Korea, Japan and Taiwan to contain the disease as soon as possible. The early phase of the US approach to dealing with Covid-19 – the Trump administration’s laissez-faire approach – proved to be a failure. Any Brazilian move to follow suit is a recipe for humanitarian, economic and political disaster.
Critics of the Bolsonaro administration have pointed to its tendency of ignoring scientific advice from health officials. In any effective combat against Covid-19, politicians must follow the advice of medical experts, who know how the world can deal with the deadly disease effectively.
Other critics have warned that Brazil must show its determination and capability to control the spread of the disease to rescue its reputation, because it had a good reputation of advancing agile and creative solutions to such medical crises as H.I.V. infections and the Zika outbreak.
At the very least, a basic but massive campaign of mobilizing all Brazilians to wear masks, stay homes, impose lockdowns in cities and even rural areas, and enforce social distancing measures will be a necessity to cope with the current crisis. However, some observers have said that rural poverty in Brazil means that social distancing appears to be practically difficult.
In any case, the federal government must show its leadership and determination to assist all municipal cities and local states to control the spread of the disease through the distribution of financial subsidies, and the implementation of a comprehensive plan of requiring all citizens to wear masks, stay homes at least for a short period of time, strict quarantine and much tougher social distancing measures.
Some critics have said that the central government in Brazil even allowed decrees to be signed by the president to let religious services, beauty salons, barbershops, and gyms open, while legislative measures to prevent the spread of Covid-19 (such as mandated wearing of masks in prisons) were even vetoed.
If so, there have been over politicization of the handling of Covid-19.
Some Brazilian politicians and authorities have failed to learn from the temporarily successful cases in East Asian states to control the spread of the deadly Covid-19.
If politics is allowed in the process of controlling Covid-19, it must include decisiveness, full respect of the advice from health experts, and most importantly a temporary sacrifice of economic operation in favor of strict quarantine measures. Short-term economic pain is a must to deal with Covid-19, which will hopefully fade away under the conditions of the self-discipline of the masses and the apolitical but decisive nature of governmental leadership.
In short, if Brazil is encountering a crisis of governance in coping with the new variant of Covid-19, it must look to the East Asian models of controlling the spread of Covid-19. Good politics rather than bad politics must be deployed in dealing with deadly infectious diseases, which can kill the lives of millions inside and across national boundaries.
原刊於澳門新聞通訊社（MNA）網站，本社獲作者授權轉載。
