從中央關於澳門─橫琴合作區和香港─前海合作區一體化藍圖的背景和內容來看，北京很可能有一個整體規劃，可能把澳門─橫琴合作區和香港─前海合作區，分別在臨近2049年和2047年時，朝着合併的方向走。從長遠來看，這對北京─台北的經濟互動具有非常重要的地緣政治影響。
琴澳一體化 促進經濟多元
澳門─橫琴合作區在澳門政府發布關於修改第16/2001號法律《娛樂場幸運博彩經營法律制度》的諮詢文件三天後，公布了《橫琴粵澳深度合作區建設總體方案》。《方案》實際把橫琴劃分成兩部分，一部分是澳門管理區，另外一部分則是粵澳合作管理區。
該合作區的特點是「共建共管共享」，合作區管理委員會主任由廣東省省長馬興瑞和澳門行政長官賀一誠擔任，常務副主任為澳門行政法務司司長張永春，副主任為廣東省常務副省長林克慶、廣東省副省長張新、珠海市委書記郭永航、澳門保安司司長黃少澤、澳門社會文化司司長歐陽瑜，秘書長為廣東省橫琴辦主任聶新平、澳門經濟財政司司長李偉農。合作區執行委員會主任由李偉農擔任，負責合作區經濟和民生管理職能，履行國際推介、招商引資、產業導入、土地開發、項目建設、民生管理等相關行政管理和公共服務職能，負責合作區具體開發建設工作。
成立合作區，目的在於令澳門經濟更加多元化。 根據9月5日發布的《橫琴粵澳深度合作區建設總體方案》，建設橫琴合作區的「初心」就是為澳門產業多元發展創造條件，加快建設便利澳門居民生活就業的「新家園」，推動對接澳門公共服務和社會保障體系。
到2029年，澳門經濟多元化發展的四大領域──中醫藥、科技研發和高端製造產業、文旅會展商貿產業和現代金融產業──有望取得「顯著成效」。預計到2035年，澳門經濟多元化的四大領域都將實現。因此，中央設計的總體方案列出具體時間表，廣東省和橫琴──澳門當局則要積極配合。
為刺激經濟發展和投資，合作區將徵收15%的低企業稅，同時「免徵15%以上的部分個人所得稅」，以吸引人才到橫琴工作和生活。在鼓勵澳門青年在橫琴工作和生活的同時，將在合作區內提供和擴大全方位的社會服務，澳門輕軌等交通網絡將延伸至橫琴。
在這樣的情況下，橫琴─澳門將整合為成為「一體化」，「一線放開，二線管住」。合作區內企業生產的貨物，經「二線」進入內地免徵進口關稅。從內地經「二線」進入合作區的貨物視同出口，按現行稅收政策規定，實行增值稅和消費稅退稅。
增強向心力 深化前海改革
橫琴──澳門合作區的發展，與前海─香港合作區同步進行。 9月6日，國務院印發《全面深化前海深港現代服務業合作區改革開放方案》。文件明確提出，方案對推動前海合作區全面深化改革開放，在粵港澳大灣區建設中更好發揮示範引領作用，對「增強香港同胞對祖國的向心力具有重要意義」。
方案概括了所有快速發展的領域：服務業、現代金融業、高新技術、人工智能、智慧城市等；放寬港澳同胞和僑胞在前海工作和居住，設立仲裁中心和國際法服務中心，擴大國際貿易。前海─香港合作區和橫琴─澳門合作區的一個驚人相似之處，是兩者都強調「黨建」和法治建設的重要性──這表明在深化並加速經濟自由化的同時，政治和法律仍保持主導地位。
與為適應澳門需求而發展的橫琴不同，深圳前海被要求在所有戰略領域與香港合作，加快和深化改革。鑑於香港的大學研究實力雄厚，前海與香港的融合顯然是利用香港的知識和研究專長，最大限度地發揮深圳前海進一步發展科技的潛力。
邊界或合併 向台灣作示範
前海─深港合作區的發展雖然沒有時間表，但與橫琴─澳門合作區有一個重要的共同點：中央為港澳兩個特別行政區，分別開闢了與內地合作的特區。從長遠來看，這兩個特別行政區中的特區，具有重要的地緣政治和經濟意義。首先，如果粵港澳大灣區規劃以融合港澳的方式來塑造、構建和發展，那麼橫琴─澳門和前海─香港的一體化，很可能分別在2049年和2047年發展成可能的邊界合併。
橫琴─澳門合作區已經規劃了到2035年的時間表，因此，當澳門和香港分別接近2049年和2047年時，中央政府很可能會按照這個時間表制定新的計劃。例如放寬一線甚至二線融入澳門和香港。澳門和香港的實質空間和地理空間很有限。如果橫琴的土地被納入特別行政區，特別是如果當下計劃修建一條連接新界和橫琴的鐵路，香港有限的土地供應將會大大增加。
其次，中央政府為澳門和香港制定的發展藍圖，顯示了北京的強大發展願景，甚至有將台灣經濟納入一體化的想法。換句話說，如果未來台灣在經濟上被吸引並回歸大陸，那麼具有港澳特殊發展作用的粵港澳大灣區將發揮集體示範模式──特別行政區可以有特區，台灣將在經濟上被吸引以比現在更密集的方式與大灣區互動。當然，北京與台北的關係更為複雜，將取決於其他因素，包括台灣島內的政治變化和北京的戰略考慮。
綜上所述，橫琴─澳門合作區必須與前海─香港合作區放在一起，在一國兩制的背景下進行分析，以顯示其對台灣經濟自由化的示範性作用。經濟自由化和改革深化是中國發展的標誌，特別是在大灣區，橫琴─澳門和前海─香港合作區具有深遠的經濟、社會和政治影響。
社會經濟方面，澳門經濟的多元化遲早會實現，而香港的優勢則將得到充分發揮，利用前海廣闊的物理空間和技術專長實現雙贏。香港和澳門居民認同中國人，將隨着他們對祖國的向心力增加而加強。另一方面，與前海一樣，橫琴將發展成為比以往任何時候都更加國際化的城市。
前海與香港、橫琴和澳門之間的經濟迅速融合，變得緊密，可以看到兩地在經濟上的相互依存。臨近2047年和2049年，香港和澳門的地界很可能分別重新劃定，好讓兩個特區行政區分別與前海和橫琴融合得更深。
Central Planning on Macau-Hengqin and Hong Kong-Qianhai Integration: Implications for 2049, 2047 and Taiwan
Judging from the context and content of the central government’s integration blueprint on Macau-Hengqin Cooperation Zone and the Hong Kong-Qianhai developmental areas, it is quite likely that Beijing has a holistic plan of moving Macau-Hengqin zone and Hong Kong-Qianhai zone toward a possible territorial merger near the year of 2049 and 2047 respectively, with very significant geopolitical implications for Beijing-Taipei economic interactions in the long run.
The Macau-Hengqin Cooperation Zone has revealed its institutional structures three days after the Macau government published its consultative document on the amendment of Law No. 16/2001 (Legal Framework for the Operations of Casino Games of Fortune). The Hengqin Island is divided into two parts: one under Macau’s administration and the other cooperative zone under the mutual governance of Guangdong and Macau. This cooperative zone is characterized by a joint governance structure, namely the Management Committee of the Cooperation Zone, which is led by the Guangdong Governor Ma Xingrui and Macau Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng and under which the executive deputy director is the Macau Secretary for Administration and Justice, Cheong Weng Chon. Under the Management Committee, a secretariat and an executive committee led by Macau Secretary for Economy and Finance, Lei Wai Nong, are formed to oversee several bureaus, including administration, law, economy, monetary and financial development, commerce, treasury, statistics, urban planning and construction, and the people’s livelihood. Macau people can arrange driving licenses and permits to go in and out of Hengqin, while the Macau East-West Meeting Point (Hengqin) Development Company has become one of the 33 projects going into the Guangdong-Macau Cooperative Industrial Park (Ming Pao, September 18, 2021).
This Cooperation Zone aims at making Macau’s economy more diversified than ever before. According to the Hengqin-Guangdong-Macau In-depth Cooperation Zone’s Construction Blueprint published on September 5, the new zone aims at helping Macau’s economic diversification, population movement to reside in Hengqin, and the expansion of social services in 2024. In 2029, the four areas of developing Macau’s economic diversification – Chinese medicine, innovation and high-tech industry, cultural and convention exhibition center, and modern monetary and financial center – will be expected to make “prominent achievements.” In 2035, it is expected that all the four realms of Macau’s economic diversification will be achieved. As such, a clear timeline is outlined in the important document designed by the central authorities and with the active participation of Guangdong provincial and Hengqin-Macau local authorities.
To stimulate economic development and investment, the Zone is going to levy 15 percent enterprise tax while “exempting parts of individual income taxes that are over 15 percent” to attract talents to work and stay there. While Macau youths are encouraged to work and live in Hengqin, a whole range of social services will be provided and expanded in the Zone. Transportation links like Macau Light Rail will be extended into Hengqin. Under these circumstances, Hengqin-Macau will be integrated as oneness or “yi tihua” with the first line being opened and second line under controlled (Blueprint, p. 11). The second line will have goods entering the mainland with more elaborated custom and immigration control and taxes levied. Clearly, three lines of administrative structure has been established, with the possibility of moving these administrative lines in accordance with geoeconomics and political needs in the long run.
The establishment of the Cooperation Zone is marked by the necessity of party building (Blueprint, pp. 17-18), meaning that political and legal protection is necessary for the governance of the Zone. The Party’s construction is put on the priority of the agenda of development, meaning that the process of opening up Hengqin to Macau must be characterized by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. The protection of the rule of law is emphasized in the Blueprint, giving Zhuhai certain degree of autonomy in legislative affairs so that the Zone’s “commercial and civil regulations will converge with Macau” (Blueprint, p. 18). Other areas of risks management, like anti-terrorism, anti-tax evasion and anti-money laundering will be monitored in the name of “emphasizing the thinking of bottom line (p. 19).” In a nutshell, the entire Blueprint is characterized by mutual governance structure, gradual and orderly openness, necessary control in the areas of tax, customs and cross-boundary crimes, and the realization of the plan of making Macau’s economy more diversified and less reliant on the casino industry.
Under this broader context of economic diversification, the Macau government’s consultative document on the amendment of Law No. 16/2001 is politically significant and administratively progressive. The document delineates several areas of casino concessionaries that will need more governmental control: (1) the emphasis on the quality rather than the quantity of concessionaries; (2) the flexibility in the period of the concessionaries to be granted; (3) more control over the capital requirement of the concessionaries; (4) the localization of the membership of the Board of Directors; (5) the governmental approval of profit sharing by concessionaries; (6) employees training and protection; (7) more control over the intermediaries and their related background checks; (8) the strategic development of non-gaming areas so as to stimulate the growth of small and medium enterprises; (9) the enhancement of social responsibility through the 4 percent tax levy that will be used for the development of culture, charity and urban development; and most importantly (10) the addition and role of governmental representative in the casino concessionaries.
Although the prices of some Macau casino stocks dropped soon after the publication of this document, those stakeholders with vested interest might not fully understand that the consultative document’s proposed amendments are accurately plugging the loopholes of casino and gaming governance in Macau. Arguably, there is and will be a genuine need for the government representative to oversee each casino concessionary’s operation, perhaps through the government’s appointment of its representative into the Board of Directors with the direct say on the most crucial issue, notably profit sharing which in the past was criticized as siphoning off the tremendous profits away from Macau to overseas. A careful study of the consultative document shows that governmental supervision and stricter control over casino governance is long overdue, ranging from the control over profit sharing to the supervision over casino-related crimes. The objectives are to modernize casino governance further and to shape its healthy development, with contributions back to the society of Macau and its economic diversification.
The Hengqin-Macau development is simultaneously accompanied by the Qianhai-Hong Kong integration. On September 6, the State Council published the Comprehensive Reform and Open Plan for Qianhai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Sector Cooperation Zone. The document states clearly that it aims at “enhancing Hong Kong comrades’ centrifugal force toward the motherland” and that it plays a “demonstrative and leading function” of deepening reforms in the Greater Bay Area. The plan outlines all the areas of rapid development: the service sector, monetary and financial development, high-tech development, artificial intelligence, smart cities, innovative experiments and research, the protection of civilian enterprises, the deepening of the reform of state-owned enterprises, the relaxation in allowing the people of Hong Kong, Macau and foreign countries to work and stay in Qian, the establishment of arbitration center and international law services center, and the expansion of international trade. One striking similarity of the Qianhai-Hong Kong plan and the Hengqin-Macau developmental blueprint is that both emphasize the importance of Party building and the improvement of the rule of law in the two zones – an indication that politics and law remain in command amid deepening and accelerated economic liberalization.
Unlike Hengqin which is reshaped to accommodate the needs of Macau, Shenzhen’s Qianhai is urged to accelerate and deepen its reforms by working with Hong Kong in all the strategic areas. Given that Hong Kong’s universities are strong in research, the integration between Qianhai and Hong Kong clearly taps the Hong Kong knowledge and research expertise to maximize the potentiality of further technological development in Shenzhen’s Qianhai.
Although the Plan for Qianhai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong cooperation zone does not have a timeline of development, it has an important area in common with the Hengqin-Macau cooperation zone: within the two special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau, a special mainland cooperation zone is already carved out for each of them. This special administrative zone within each of the two special administrative regions has important geopolitical and economic significance in the long run.
First, if the Greater Bay Area plan is shaped, structured and developed in such a way as to incorporate Hong Kong and Macau, the Hengqin-Macau and Qianhai-Hong Kong integration will likely develop into a possible territorial merger in 2049 and 2047 respectively. The Hengqin-Macau Cooperation Zone has already delineated the timeline up to 2035. Hence, when both Macau and Hong Kong approach 2049 and 2047 respectively, it will be quite likely that the central government will have a new plan along the line of a possible territorial merger, relaxing the first line or even the second line of the special cooperative zones to be integrated into Macau and Hong Kong. In both Macau and Hong Kong, physical and geographical space remains limited. Hong Kong’s limited land supply would have a huge boost if Hengqin were territorially integrated into the special administrative region, especially if a plan is underway to build a railway connecting the New Territories with Hengqin.
Second, the central government’s blueprint of development for Macau and Hong Kong demonstrates a strong developmental state in Beijing, which may have Taiwan’s economic integration in its mind. In other words, if Taiwan is going to be economically lured and integrated back into mainland China in the future, the Greater Bay Area (GBA) with the special developmental roles of Hong Kong and Macau will play a collective demonstration model where special administrative regions can have special zones, and where Taiwan will be economically attracted to interact with the GBA in a more intensive way than the present. Of course, Beijing-Taipei relations are more complex and will depend on other factors, including Taiwan’s domestic political change and Beijing’s strategic calculations.
In conclusion, the Hengqin-Macau cooperation zone must be analyzed together with the Qianhai-Hong Kong cooperation zone in the context of using the “one country, two systems” to show its demonstrative economic liberalization impacts on Taiwan. Economic liberalization and reform deepening are the hallmarks of China’s development, especially in the Greater Bay Area where the Hengqin-Macau and Qianhai-Hong Kong cooperation zones have profound economic, social and political implications. Socio-economically, Macau’s economic diversification will be realized sooner or later, while Hong Kong’s strengths are fully maximized with a win-win situation of utilizing the vast physical space and technological expertise in Qianhai. The Chinese identity of the people of Hong Kong and Macau are expected to be strengthened with their increased centrifugal tendency toward their motherland. On the other hand, Hengqin is going to be developed into a more international city than ever, as with the case of Qianhai. Economic interdependence can be witnessed in the rapid and closer economic integration between Qianhai, Hong Kong, Hengqin and Macau. Approaching 2047 and 2049, it will be likely that the boundaries of Hong Kong and Macau respectively will be redrawn so that the two administrative regions will go deeper and integrate territorially with Qianhai and Hengqin respectively.
原刊於澳門新聞通訊社（MNA）網站，本社獲作者授權轉載。
