台灣在野黨國民黨最近的發展表明，雖然其黨主席朱立倫對大陸採取溫和政策，但黨內候選人正在積極準備即將舉行的台灣縣市長選舉。
6月中旬，朱立倫訪問美國時，他對「九二共識」的評論引起了爭議。朱立倫說，1992年兩岸的共識是「沒有共識的共識」。馬英九基金會批評朱立倫的言論，稱「九二共識」仍然是兩岸最基本的共識。
朱立倫的這番話，也引起了大陸的反應。大陸國台辦發言人馬曉光表示，在兩岸局勢嚴峻的情況下，「九二共識」不容任意扭曲。 馬曉光還說，他呼籲兩岸任何想要維持台海和平的人都應把握正確方向，呼籲「保持頭腦清醒」。
一些國民黨員將朱立倫的訪美視為勝利，不僅突顯了該黨親美的立場，而且與大陸打交道時也採取了和平的取態。
國民黨前主席江啟臣表示，他不想評論朱立倫，但他強調，他在2020年3月至2021年10月擔任黨主席期間，已經表達了國民黨改善與美國關係的必要性。因此，朱立倫訪美是對國民黨這一政策路線的肯定。江啟臣還補充說，國民黨在華盛頓的代表處是一個良好的開端，讓美國在台灣問題上的決策者可以聽到台灣的聲音，而不是華盛頓只聆聽民進黨的聲音。
蔣介石曾孫蔣萬安行情看漲
1978年出生的蔣萬安，是蔣介石的曾孫，已成為國民黨內冉冉升起的政治新星。他畢業於國立政治大學和賓夕法尼亞大學，2013年回台灣工作前曾在加州執業律師。2022年5月，國民黨提名他為即將於11月26日在舉行的縣市長選舉的台北市長參選人。
蔣萬安6月時曾公開表示，作為蔣家的一員，他感到自豪，這是他參與選舉的政治資產。與此同時，蔣萬安公開表示，台北─上海雙城論壇應該在大陸不會派軍機「擾台」的情況下舉行，以釋放出相互善意，雙方應該「對等尊嚴」。蔣萬安描述其政治立場的方式表明，他的言論是考慮到台灣的選舉市場，大多數選民具有非常強烈的台灣本土意識，他們中的大多數人更願意和諧的兩岸政策。
國民黨分裂有跡可尋
2022年6月中旬，國民黨內部的分裂一目了然，當時在2021年黨主席選舉中敗給朱立倫的深藍國民黨員張亞中，公開批評朱立倫在2021年國民黨主席選舉中花錢太多。張亞中補充說，雖然他沒有足夠的資源，卻獲得了總票數的三分之一。朱立倫的國民黨支持者立即回應張亞中的批評，指張亞中在沒有足夠證據的情況下作出聲稱。張亞中還表示，雖然一些國民黨員贊成他參選高雄市長，但黨主席朱立倫無意讓他出選。
張亞中的言論暗示國民黨內部由朱立倫派控制，這可能不會讓他參加高雄市長選舉。
6月中旬，張亞中競選高雄市長的願望清楚可見，當時他表示如果有機會當選市長，會向全世界宣布高雄市為「非戰和平區」。一些高雄企業家支持張亞中競選市長，他獲得國民黨高雄前市長韓國瑜的一些支持者的力挺。
高雄市長參選人陣前換將
據報道，2021年國民黨支持高雄市前副市長李四川參選2022年11月的高雄市長選舉，但在2022年6月下旬，國民黨提名其副秘書長兼女心理學家柯志恩參選高雄市長。
張亞中自然對國民黨的決定表示失望。他的參選努力和國民黨的最終決定表明，黨內派系主義仍然很嚴重。張亞中有巨大的潛力來反映國民黨高雄前市長韓國瑜的受歡迎程度。
在張亞中試圖參選高雄市長時，有傳言稱國民黨民調顯示，柯志恩人氣位列第一，張亞中位列第五。 然而，尚不清楚有否及如何進行這樣的民意調查。張亞中的支持者疑所謂的「民意調查」是否「造假」。據9月報道，高雄的許多選民並不熟悉柯志恩，如果柯志恩後來在高雄市長選舉中落敗，對於國民黨的市長參選人提名機制來說，將是一個危險的訊號。
國民黨下半旗悼安倍晉三被批「丟臉」
儘管張亞中不是國民黨中央青睞的參選人，但他仍然是國民黨的批評者。國民黨總部7月下半旗哀悼日本前首相安倍晉三的遇刺身亡，張亞中批評國民黨此舉「丟臉」，「踐踏黨格」。他說，中國國民黨可派員去日本交流協會弔唁，但沒必要降黨旗。張張亞中批評安倍擔任日本首相以軍艦阻擋台灣漁民赴釣魚台捕魚，堅決不為慰安婦道歉的強硬態度。張仍然是國民黨深藍陣營的核心成員。
國民黨內深藍陣營的其他成員包括夏立言，他在佩洛西訪問台北後訪問大陸。一些國民黨參選人擔心夏立言訪問大陸會影響他們的選舉機會。柯志恩8月曾公開表示，夏立言訪問大陸「不太適宜」，因為大多數台灣人都想維持兩岸關係的現狀。
8月中旬，朱立倫為夏立言訪問大陸辯護。他說夏立言不訪問大陸很容易，因為他的訪問勢必會被批評為傷害國民黨和選舉。不過，朱立倫補充說，他的訪問對台灣人來說是「對的事情」，因為這至少可以減少對台灣的經濟傷害。具體而言，台灣的商人和農民已遭受了巨大的經濟損失，這是台灣人不願看到的。
陳時中更換馬桶政見遭柯文哲狠批
即將舉行的縣市長選舉的重要國民黨候選人包括台北市的蔣萬安和新北市的侯友宜。 7月，蔣萬安公開表示，台灣與大陸的交流對話意義重大，表明他在藍色陣營中是溫和派。他現在正在與民進黨參選人陳時中競爭。陳時中最近誓言，如果他當選為新任市長，台北的公廁將更換「免治馬桶」──這句話招來了現任市長柯文哲的批評，他說這些設施維護費用過高，現階段不恰當。另一位獨立候選人黃珊珊也參選台北市長。 最近的民意調查顯示，陳時中的人氣似乎略高於蔣萬安，但與黃珊珊一樣得到很多年輕人的支持。
8月，據傳侯友宜的競選經理都很年輕，大多20餘歲。他將在新北市長選舉中面對民進黨參選人林佳龍。侯友宜被視為台灣2024年初總統大選的潛在競爭者。他在新北市保住市長席位的選舉表現值得我們關注。侯友宜若成功，必將預示他在國民黨內的美好政治前途。
強大參選陣容冀復興國民黨
9月初，朱立倫接受德國媒體的專訪，被問及國民黨的「低」支持度時，他突然中斷採訪。民進黨陣營和傳媒趁機批評他的行為。顯然，民進黨陣營一直將復興國民黨視為嚴重的政治威脅。
總而言之，雖然國民黨內部出現了派系主義跡象，但該黨競選2022年市長選舉的參選陣容顯然很強大，可能會保住現任席位或取得新的勝利。深藍陣營與中間派之間的緊張關係在國民黨內部持續存在。以黨主席朱立倫為首的中間陣營渴望在與美國和中國大陸打交道上採取中間路線，贏得選民的心，從而復興國民黨以過渡到具有政治意義的2024 年總統選舉。國民黨的復興能否在11月26日舉行市長選舉時取得成功。還有待觀察。
Kuomintang Politics in Taiwan
Recent development in the Kuomintang, Taiwan’s opposition party, has shown that while its chair Eric Chu has been adopting a moderate policy toward mainland China, its party candidates are actively preparing for the upcoming mayoral elections in Taiwan.
In mid-June, when Eric Chu visited the US, his comment on the 1992 consensus aroused controversies. Chu said that the 1992 consensus was “a consensus amid a lack of consensus.” The Ma Ying-jeou Foundation criticized Chu’s remarks by saying that the 1992 consensus remains the most basic idea across the two straits.
Chu’s comment also evoked the responses from the mainland. Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesperson of the mainland State Department’s Taiwan Affairs Office said that the 1992 consensus could not be distorted at a time when the situation between the two straits was complex. Ma added that he hopes the people in Taiwan should keep their cool heads in the main political issues concerning nationalism.
Some KMT members regarded Chu’s visit as a victory not only emphasizing its pro-US position but also adopting a peaceful approach to dealing with mainland China.
A former KMT chair Johnny Chiang remarked that he did not want to comment on Eric Chu, but he stressed that the voice on the need to improve KMT relations with the US had already been articulated at a time when he was the chair March 2020 to October 2021. Hence, Chu’s visit to the US was an affirmation of this KMT policy line. Chiang also added that the KMT office in Washington was a good beginning, allowing Taiwan’s voice to be heard by the US policymakers on Taiwan rather than having a situation in which Washington just listened to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Born in 1978 and a great grandson of Chiang Kai-shek, Wayne Chiang Wan-an has become a rising political star in the KMT. He graduated from National ChengChi University and the University of Pennsylvania, practiced law in California before he moved back to work in Taiwan in 2013. In May 2022, the KMT nominated him as a candidate in the forthcoming mayoral elections in Taipei city on November 26.
In June, Chiang publicly said that he feels proud of being a member of the Chiang family, and that this is his political asset in electoral participation. At the same time, Wayne Chiang commented publicly that the Taipei-Shanghai Forum should be held under the circumstances that the mainland would not send its military planes to “disturb Taiwan,” that it could release friendly gestures, and that both sides should have “equal status.” The way in which Chiang delineated his political position showed that his remarks were made in consideration of the electoral market in Taiwan, where most voters have a very strong local Taiwan identity and where most of them prefer a mainland policy harmonious toward the island.
The KMT’s internal division was easily seen in mid-June 2022 when Chang Ya-chung, who was a dark blue member of the KMT and who was defeated by Eric Chu in the 2021 party chairperson election, openly criticized Chu for spending a lot of money in the 2021 KMT chairperson election. Chang added that although he did not have sufficient resources, he got one-third of the total votes. The KMT supporters of Eric Chu immediately responded to Chang’s criticism, saying that Chang made a claim without sufficient evidence. Chang also said that although some KMT members favored him as a candidate in the Kaohsiung mayoral election, party chair Eric Chu could still ignore him.
Chang’s remarks implied that the KMT was internally dominated by the Eric Chu faction, which might not allow him to run for the mayoral election in the city of Kaohsiung.
Chang’s aspiration to run for the mayoral election in Kaohsiung could be seen in mid-June when he said that Kaohsiung could become a “warless and peaceful zone.” Some Kaohsiung entrepreneurs supported Chang to run for the mayoral election, and he got the back-up of some supporters of Han Kuo-yu, the former KMT mayor in Kaohsiung.
In 2021, it was reported the KMT favored a former deputy KMT major Lee Si-chuan to run for the Kaohsiung mayoral election in November 2022, but in late June 2022 the party nominated its deputy secretary-general and female psychologist Ko Chih-En to run for the mayoral election in Kaohsiung.
Naturally, Chang Ya-chong expressed his disappointment with the KMT decision. His efforts at running and the KMT’s final decision showed that party factionalism remains serious within the party. Chang had tremendous potential to mirror the popularity of the former KMT mayor Han Guo-yu.
In Chang’s attempt at running for the mayoral election in Kaohsiung, there were rumors that the KMT conducted an opinion poll showing that Ko Chih-En’s popularity was ranked number one while Chang was ranked number five. Nevertheless, it was unclear whether and how such a poll was conducted. Supporters of Chang questioned whether the so-called “poll” was a “fake” one.In September, many voters in Kaohsiung were reportedly unfamiliar with Ko. If Ko were later defeated in the mayoral election in Kaohsiung, it would sound a dangerous signal to the mechanism of the KMT in nominating candidates to run for the mayoral elections.
Even though Chang Ya-chung was not an internally favored candidate by the KMT party center, he remains a critic of the party. In July, when the KMT party headquarters showed its flag at half-mast to mourn the sudden death of the former Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe, Chang criticized the KMT move as “shameful” and losing its party “dignity.” He said that the party could send someone to mourn Abe’s death in Japan’s trade office in Taipei, but it was unnecessary to lower the party flag. Chang criticized Abe for being hardline on the Diaoyu (Fishing) Island when he was the Japanese Prime Minister. Chang remains a core member of the dark blue camp within the KMT.
Other members of the dark blue camp within the KMT included Andrew Hsia, who went to the mainland after the Pelosi visit to Taipei. Some KMT candidates were concerned about Hsia’s visit on their electoral chances. Ko Chih-En said publicly in August that Hsia’s visit to the mainland was “inappropriate” now because most Taiwan people want to maintain the status quo in cross-strait relations.
Eric Chu in mid-August responded to the Andrew Hsia’s visit in a supportive manner. He said that it was easy for Hsia not to visit the mainland, because his visit was bound to be criticized for hurting the KMT and the election. However, Chu added that his visit was “good” for the people of Taiwan because it could at least reduce the economic harm to Taiwan. Specifically, businesspeople and farmers in Taiwan had been suffering tremendous economic losses – a phenomenon that the Taiwan people did not want to witness.
The important KMT candidates in the upcoming mayoral election include Wayne Chiang in Taipei city and Hou You-yi in New Taipei North. In July, Wayne Chiang said publicly that the exchange and dialogue between Taiwan and the mainland are significant – an indication that he is moderate in the blue camp. He is now competing with DPP candidate Chen Shih-chung. Chen has recently vowed to revamp Taipei’s public toilets if he were elected as a new mayor – a remark triggering the criticisms from current mayor Ko Wen-jie, who said that such amenities were scrapped due to high costs. Another independent candidate Huang Shan-shan is also running in the Taipei mayoral election. Recent opinion polls have showed that Chen Shih-chung’s popularity appeared to be slightly higher than Wayne Chiang, who however got many young people’s support as with Huang Shan-shan.
In August, Hou You-yi’s campaign managers were reportedly young and belong to the 20s. He is facing DPP candidate Lin Chia-lung, in the New Taipei North city’s mayoral election. Hou was regarded as a potential contender in the Taiwan presidential election in early 2024. His electoral performance in retaining his mayoral seat in New Taipei North will deserve our attention. Hou’s success will surely point to his rosy future in KMT’s internal politics.
In early September, when Eric Chu cut short of an interview by a German media when he was asked about the KMT’s “low” popularity, the DPP camp and media seized the opportunity to criticize his behavior. Obviously, the DPP camp has been regarding the reviving KMT as a serious political threat.
In conclusion, while the KMT has been showing signs of internal factionalism, its candidates running for the 2022 mayoral elections are apparently strong and may either retain their incumbent seats or score new victories. The tensions between the dark blue camp and the moderately blue faction persists within the KMT. The moderately blue camp led by party chair Eric Chu is eager to steer a middle-of-the-road approach to dealing with the US and mainland China, to win the hearts and minds of voters, and to revive the KMT in its transition to the politically significant 2024 presidential election. It remains to be seen whether the KMT’s revival and rejuvenation will be successful on November 26, when the mayoral elections will be held.
原刊於澳門新聞通訊社（MNA）網站，本社獲作者授權轉載。
